go ahead or dump it? BHP CEO has a very difficult decision to make. I think he will try to kick the can as far down the road as he can and wait what happens. That uncertainty will probably hold the stock price down.
Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) is one potash company now trading below book and would make an excellent ready to go acquisition for entry into the United States potash market in a region not serviced by most potash producers. IPI has the strongest balance sheet among them all.
The $2.6 bn is spread out over several years. BHP projects 3%/r growth in the potash market. fI they monetize part of the mine by getting a joint venture partner to share costs, it reduces the risk and recovers development costs,
Jansen doesn't come on stream until around 2016. BHP deals in mega-mines with long-term production. Life of this mine is fifty years (per press release on BHPBilliton website). BHP is not dependent on postash or any other mineral. Has lots of iron ore, coal, copper, gold, silver, petroleum, etc., world-scale assets.
Jansen is not news and has been built into the SP for some time. BHP is a long-term stock, and unless you are a trader, don't sweat the daily, weekly fluctuations. BBL is an even better deal as it is essentially the same company.
---Jansen is not news and has been built into the SP for some time. ---
The mine may not be news but the Russian cartel break up certainly is, and likely will adversely impact ROI of the project. That said, BHP is a diversified business as you pointed out, so this project certainly would not be expected to affect BHP stock price anywhere near as much as that of a pure player like POT.
BHP is more than potash. Hold stock price down on income they have yet to develop? Money in the bank. BHP was not in either cartel. This will let us know what the real price of potash is. The world is hungry