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Nutrisystem, Inc. Message Board

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  • ohshaw ohshaw Oct 5, 2005 2:57 PM Flag

    Need 10-fold rev growth

    Large gross margins with low barrier to entry = competition coming

    Price-to-sales of 1.5 is not unfair. See RELV at http://www.reliv.com/ ... their price-to-sales is 1.3 and yet they are growing their earnings for the past 3 years at a better rate than NTRI, and were profitable every quarter. NUTR has better top-line growth, but RELV has much better bottom-line growth. And the PE for RELV is 22. Like I said, we need 10-fold rev growth for NTRI to grow into the current stock price. And we need more than 10-fold growth to become a compelling buy with good upside potential.

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    • By the way, if you think that their distribution system with dozens of suppliers, a proven glycemic diet that works, an efficient direct marketing infrastructure and at least $1 billion in brand equity spent over 20 years is a low barrier to entry, then you obviously just don't get it.

    • And why do I feel that u are one of those super educated shorts???

      Cauz tomorrow ur nuts will be squeezed

    • <<Large gross margins with low barrier to entry = competition coming>>

      Well you will be right someday but in real-time, this company just announced tremendous market share gains... they are currently beating the competition BADLY... margins will get better and I would argue significantly better before they get worse...

      you are making a long-term argument in the face of tremendous momentum... for now, the price/sales looks too low... someday, maybe this company will be bankrupt because of competition -- but first the company is going to make tons of money...

    • "RELV: They are growing their earnings for the past 3 years at a better rate than NTRI"
      ======================================================================

      Hmmm, let's take a look.

      RELV y/y sales growth is a whopping 18.9%http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=RELV

      NTRI y/y sales growth is a mere 447.0%
      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ntri

      Clearly, NTRI is the 800 lb gorilla in the nutritional diet space.

      And you are an idiot for even suggesting that REVL is a high-growth company

      • 1 Reply to swerd96
      • You said:
        "And you are an idiot for even suggesting that REVL is a high-growth company"

        You looked only at rev growth. I look there too, but I also look at earnings growth which is what really matters.

        NTRI... 6/03 = .08, 6/04 = .03, 6/05 = .13
        in other words, very choppy, and only about 60% growth over 2 years. Great things are coming? Maybe. Maybe not.

        RELV... 6/03 = .06, 6/04 = .05, 6/05 = .13
        that's steadier, FASTER growth over 2 years.
        On top of that, RELV has much better cash flow, consistent profitability, and vastly better value (eg, nearly 1/10 the price to sales).

        Good luck with your momo play, and that in-depth analysis.

    • Please distribute the drugs that you are taking. Past 3 years? This company will grow 5 fold this year. Unparalled ANYWHERE!!! Better top line growth??? $.02 to $0.65 by the end of the year?? Please show me a better growth rate on the bottom line. Anyone that has seriously done the research will expect $1.50+ for '06 which means that this 400 to 500% grower is selling for 20xs next year's earnings. Don't believe it if you like, future buying for the rest of us.

 
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