Problems and thoughts on the future:
1st time posting
Interested but not yet invested in Conceptus.
I've performed a number of Essure procedures all of which have been successful and all so far under General Anesthesia. We are hoping soon to move the procedure into our office and intend to replace conventional laparascopic tubal procedures with Essure. However my group of physicians is well trained in office hysteroscopy and conversion will be easy for us BUT:
#1 The majority of OBGYN physicians do not perform office hysteroscopy and this conversion will be both difficult and expensive for them. I understand that Olympus has teamed up with Conceptus and good things will hopefully come from this association. But office based hysterosopy has to date not caught on and I would wager that overall less than 15% of OBGYN physicians have this capability.
#2 Managed care is a big obstacle. The device cost about $1000 for the pair. Hospitals usually have contracted fees ie a laparascopic tubal pays so much. These contracted reimbursements may differ somewhat on whether electric cautery vs clips vs whatever is used but overall I suspect the hospital gets between $1200 to $1800..maybe less. Add to this the Anaesthesiologist fee then pile on the cost of Essure and you've got a procedure that was alot cheaper without Essure. Essure needs to come into the physicians office to really make it and this will take time.Its hard to imagine it cost effective otherwise.
3) The company needs to be really careful that the docs are well trained. They also need to be careful that premature certification doesn't occur. Presently at least 5 observed and preceptored procedures need to be done before determining a physicians competency with Essure. Remember: the more foul ups, complications and failures that occur the more likely the FDA can make everyones life unbearable and the more patient dissatisfaction can undermine the long term success of Essure. This will take time.
#4 There is definitly a learning curve with this procedure.Overmarketing before there are enough well trained physicians can have a negative impact and it is difficult to pace the training and acceptance at the physician level.Remember,OBGYN docs are very comfortable with laparoscopy.
5# Physician reimbursement is an unknown and may influence choice of sterilization procedures. Hopefully it will reimburse better than laparascopic tubal sterilizations but it needs to be at least comparable. This is especially important in the office where overhead and time are very important.
In my opinion Essure should become the standard of care for permanent contraception but its going to take time. Theres no quick buck here. The procedure is safe, quick (15-18min) and effective. It eliminates the risks of laparoscopy (trocar or cautery injuries), incisions (with longer post-op down time and pain) and general anaesthesia. I believe it will become as common place as the "No-Scalpel Vasectomy".
It will benefit even more when enough data can be accumulated to eliminate the need for a Hysterosalpingogram at three months post-op and the need for back-up comtraception during this period.
Finally I believe that more is needed than a single product for a company to succeed. I would be very interested in any pipe-line knowledge, R&D and international sales and development knowledge out there. I will continue to share my knowledge of Essure and look forward to thoughtful commentary and/or constructive criticism.
For the last time. Shorts are NOT driving this lower. You need to quit tilting at windmills and face reality. Fundamentals are, and will continue to, drive it lower. Cash burn is too high.
no need to get nasty, i'm not commmenting about the size of any of your organs. (lfdoa is an obstetrical abbreviation). i simply believe this procedure will be extremely popular and we will see impressive quarter after quarter revenue growth over the next 1-2 years. over the short term the shorts may continue to push this stock a bit lower, however, with the ACOG meeting and official introduction of the product in april and the patient acceptance of the procedure, we will certainly see the stock at higher levels in the near future. as a physician the key issue is reimbursement by the carriers. as long as the payors will cover the procedure in the office, essure and cpts will be an absolute homerun from these current levels.
Hey Dr. doa, you need to get certified on the keyboard of your computer. All caps is considered yelling. That may be the way you communicate to your fantasy patients and nurses but that doesn't mean you need to do it here.
BTW, your name, Ifdoa,.....it's....well.....a bit.....cryptic, even for a make-believe doctor.
The Sky is the Limit on this stock like every other concept stock, nobody here questions that. But till this company actually backs up all the "potential" with real numbers and actual sales figures this stock stays right where it is.
You can't be more wrong. essure is a revolutionary new product for women's health. you will see significant revenue growth as the gyns's in the us are trained and the media blitz begins. I just completed my certification and can't be more excited about this product. When a patient's endometrium is thin, this procedure is very easy and patient satisfaction is very high. Just buy this stock and hold it.
At the end of the day all the technical analysis in the world doesn't change the fact that this company is burning through $10mil per quarter and it would be lucky to get to $10 in revenues this entire year. Not a pretty picture unless they turn that around.
The fact that today's High has bumped the upper Bollinger band (20-day avg, 2 SD) may be less significant than it looks.
The Bollinger envelope is in a downtrend. The upper limit is falling, the lower limit is rising. Thus, Bollinger narrowing, which infers future consolidatation. The downtrend may be ending, but isn't necessarily replaced by an uptrend. Typically there can be weeks of "dead" inaction -- flat (stable) price, not much volume.
The next breakout, though, whenever it comes, may be either up or down.
The fact is that on Bollinger's own site, CPTS is rated 'worst' for performance and 'poor' for potential.
nge=+0.43 [no spaces in the URL]
If this link is too long, just go to the equitytrader(dot)com site and enter the ticker symbol into the box near the top.
I am an analyst with a hedge fund that owns Conceptus. We're conducting a study to figure out exactly what is going on with Essure and I just read your insightful posting on Yahoo. Can we arrange a time to speak over the phone? We are offering an honorarium to thank doctors for their assistance. Please contact me at the e-mail below if you are interested. Thanks.