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Conceptus, Inc. Message Board

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  • nowwheretogo22004 nowwheretogo22004 Oct 19, 2011 8:00 AM Flag

    Hologic conceding?

    Maybe Hologic will just buy them for $500M. Unless it just got very hostile over the suit, that makes the most sense for Hologic.

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    • CPTS has refused offers in the past. not sure what the magic number is that they would entertain. however, if the verdict leaves little room for doubt and no appeal - that gives them significant leverage in a marketplace that currently only has two players and no competition on the horizon. if that is the case, either the price should increase for the company or they shouldnt sell and continue their strategy.

      if the injunction is successful and hologic chooses the licensing route, then they have a business decision to buy CPTS or try to compete with a more expensive and still inferior product. with this litigation potentially near a close, CPTS may become much more attractive to JnJs and the such who were waiting it out to see how they fared against hologic in court.

      i have never invested in CPTS on the hopes of a buyout. i got in during Phase 1 and have been impressed with the steady, consistent progress they have shown. i think the product is a winner. i think the market will continue to back that up. and long term that will provide extended capital appreciation and dividends.

      i was hoping the volume would have extended past where we ended up yesterday. it was strong first half of the session and then petered out. we barely eclipsed the 3 month average. this morning we are seeing no volume. since the company is already heavily invested by insiders and instiutions (99%), the case may have had no impact.

      my guess is the price would escalate from the very small float (outside of institutions) and people wanting back in. not seeing that scenario so far. there are 31.4MM shares and insiders and institutions own 99.72% of those shares. the short ratio is 2.16MM shares. when retail investors want back in - they are going to have to pay for it. the 3 month avg daily volume is more than the general shares available outside of insiders and institutions.

      right now (10:00 AM ) it looks like MMs are scrounging for shares so we may see another step up

    • where did you come up with $500MM on a buyout? current market cap is $343MM and the stock has traded in the mid $20s just a couple of years ago (before Adiana/lawsuits). if they once again become the only player and/or their competition is paying to play - that number seems very light.

      700K TLs done a year in the US alone. half of those x $1100 per device = $385MM/year in rev in the US alone. that is over current market cap. you can change the market share to 30% or 60% and assume the price of the device will continue to drop - but the annual revenues are still tremendous. they did $140MM in revs last year with minimal US penetration.

 

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