I am here, lol. I did not bail. I just haven't seen the need to make any comment, that is all. Naturally, the stock price recovery has been nice.
I never understood the short attacks on CHOP, but, conversely, I am not going to participate in any euphoria here (other than the short attacks have seemed to stop). I think it is fairly obivous that the recent run-up in the stock price was cause by premature knowledge of the new product annoucement fueled by the false assumptions behind the appointment of Grayling.
I like CHOP the company and I appreciate CHOP management. This comes as no surprise to anyone. But this is probably a good time to review the overall situation:
Excellent international opportunities
Cheap raw materials
Good choice of product niches
Some market dominance
Terrible stock market sector (China small-cap)
Volatile domestic economics
Huge stock overhang
Different cultural perceptions on the value of a stock price
CHOP is a long-term play. For the stock price to realize its full potential, two things must happen:
1) The China small cap sector must recover. I see no real signs of this happening now or anytime soon.
2) The stock must work its way through a huge overhang. It really has never yet recovered from the huge issuance of shares from the warrant conversion. There are a lot of holders who are just waiting for a return to the $3.50 to $5.00 area in order to sell. That is not a comfortable fact, but it is reality.
Also, I am not one to believe the appointment of Grayling was for the purpose of lifting the stock. What I believe is that CHOP management discovered that entering into the international markets was not simply a matter of offering CHOP's product. They quickly discovered that no one knew who the heck China Gerui was and that that was a problem. Being a US listed company helps, but they needed to do some education and pushing. Hence Grayling.
Now, I do believe that is good for the long term for the company and its products and therefore good long-term for the stock. But, in no way do I believe Grayling was chosen to boost the stock price and help shareholders.
The only way management will try to bump the stock price here is if they see the need to do an equity offering. And, we should remember, that every single effort CHOP has made in the US markets, public or private, has not been marked by great success in the price of the stock. Management is better off sticking to what it knows and what it has demonstrated it is good at: running a good and solid company.
Gentlemen, we are simply along for the ride here. No euphoria please, and no bashing either. CHOP is CHOP. A good company and a good long-term investment, with US shareholder return being a by-product rather than a primary focus.