Since I own a small stake in TXCC I thought it might be time to say something positive about the company. (There has been more than enough bad news:-(
1. IN 35 years of investing, I have seen very few semi companies go completely belly up if their product marketplace remains viable., Invariably, if things get tough, a merger or buyout is usually arranged. The impetus for this usually comes from the investment brokers who hold major positions in the company. They want to limit losses as much as the retail investor.
2. Whatever Ali says in the CC, you can be sure then will be private meetings with the main investors to ask the hard questions (actual cash burn rate, the real order commitments, schedule slippage etc.) If the answers are not positive a buyout will be arranged.
3. In spite of the descent of the share price, someone is still buying shares.....lots of them. No major investment firm throws good money after bad without some potential for success. The fact that TXCC was able to arrange a quick PIPE indicates they have some positive news to report. I suspect just one new major commitment may trigger a sharp spike in the price.
Just a note on Point # 3. Your statement of "no investment firm throws good money after bad without some potential for success" is not entirely true. There are many deals made on the street, i.e.
"Hey Joe, XYZ Firm is going to dump their position. Can you help me out and let me park some stock?"
"Sure, but then you need to buy some PDQ."
While there is a potential for success, the result may not be coming from TXCC. So, don't for a second think that because an "institution" is holding shares, you should. They need to cover their #$%$ and friends help friends. Stick to the hard facts. That should not be part of your risk/reward #$%$sment.
Good luck on your buyout theory. I don't see it. It's more hope than fact, which is why people have lost money in this stock for over 10 years.
You are absolutely correct in the behind the scenes dealing that goes on between traders and investment firms. Anyone who is unaware of the mechanics of these transactions is a lamb waiting to be sheared.
Having said that there appears to be more than the expected trading action going on. I have a limited stake in TXCC so I sleep well at night. The technology is there. I am very familiar with the TI DLP design group and they do their homework before any supplier makes it onto their reference designs. Based on that I decided to take a flyer on this firm (I've bashed them relentlessly over the years.)
If there is a light at the end of the tunnel, we'll hear about it on the next CC. No risk, no reward.
Wait a minute. We have been hearing that TXCC is divesting away from telecom and going into HD Video. They are selling all their patents. This reeks of desperation that they bring out a press release for a 5 year old processir the Atlanta. Dont investors want to see the fruits of the last 8 years of investment into the video side?
As always you over simplify, but maybe that is because you are simple. The transition from telecom to video connectivity has been an evolutionary process. It has been going on for a little over two and a half years. Stick with the facts and avoid the "headlines" and we could have a discussion.
You echo many of my thoughts in your assessment. Despite the unpleasantness of dilution, the fact that they have been able to sell more shares to three different parties as the stock has cratered means their story is believable to more sophisticated and more informed investors than us retail poags. If they do get that "one new major commitment" from a big player (Samsung would be nice), the stock would double or triple in short order.