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TranSwitch Corp. Message Board

  • anilkoomar anilkoomar Apr 16, 2013 12:24 PM Flag

    What to do with TXCC?

    I am ashamed to say that I have accumulated a significant position in this equity - bought in the high .90's all the way to the high.40's with an average at about .74.

    Buying on dips has caused me to own a significant position that I would not normally own but had faith in the long term story. I now have near 4k shares based on the 4 different purchase points.

    Anyone with a siginifcant position like mine still holding tight here?

    TIA

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    • You know, guys that Herb Chen quit selling at $.79 and he and his group are still holding 2.3M shares. As an ex-insider, he would have much better insight than us retail guys. If we are ashamed of going down with the ship, imagine how he feels. To me, it says that the probability of recovery over $.79 outweighs his obvious personal issues with the company.

    • Nothing to be ashamed about. The questions you have to ask are:
      1. What do you do now? Take your losses, double down, or put head in sand?
      2. Have you learnt anything from this experience. If so, what?

      • 1 Reply to flexible100
      • Correction - I own 40k shares buying blocks of 10k each as this moved lower. I was attracted to this name having followed it way back in the day and saw the potential of a huge turnaround given mgt projections for 2013 and didn't think wall street was giving it the correct price tag and was using historic financials to tag a current valuation. Ali seemed so convincing on the past few conf calls talking about potential customers and 70 leads that could eventually sign on.

        I want to see results and agree from Newmerc that next cc will be key although it seems like that same theme every qtr. I trust mgt when I made my investment and wondering if that was a good idea as they haven't live up to any promises. No patent sales, last minute dilution and revenues are coming. Is it true we need $20milion in revenue in qtrs 3 & 4 to meet wall street numbers? What happened to the $40mm+ projected by ali in q4 for 2013?

        I think I was stupid for not doing more DD before investing and should have invested once I saw the promises coming to bear. One of my rules in investing that prevents getting burned but it appears a lot of smart people were duped here. I will be pleasantly surprised if I hear differently on the next call as they should be setting up for the 2nd half of the year.

    • What is the "long term story"? Curious since txcc has been changing its mind about what business its in over the past two years, even to the point that current pronouncements seem to be disconnected with its attempt to enter the television business as of five months ago.

    • acolvol@bellsouth.net acolvol Apr 17, 2013 10:42 AM Flag

      I bought in at .42 and am anxious for this stock to start upward. However, my biggest concern is a R/S and then have the P/S to drop to the pre-split price.

    • Anilkoomar:

      I initiated a position at $.83 and added to it at $.73. While it is a larger position than yours, it represents a minor part of my portfolio.

      The reason for the my investment was based on TXCC's video interface technology that was confirmed by TI's reference design selection. Their has never been any question in my mind on TXCC's performance capability.

      The risk factor is (and has always been) TXCC's inability to implement their designs, with a minimum of errors, into the the latest cmos process technology. They have failed time and time again to achieve this goal over the last decade for a multitude of products. It has resulted in their IC solutions being too costly with too many work-arounds and has impacted every production ramp.forecast.

      I thought they had a little more breathing room on the video front but I may be disappointed. The next CC will be key. If they have successfully implemented their designs in the latest cmos process they will be competitive on pricing and be able to ramp. If not, they will be stuck with selling into some limited markets (at higher prices but very small volumes).

      Implementation into the best CMOS process is the key to profitability in the semi business. If you miss the goal it takes 6 months to recover. These are proprietary issues that are not discussed during CC calls. However, the situation becomes apparent when production does not ramp on schedule.

      If TXCC hasn't ramped by the time of the CC, it would indicate another cmos problem. In that case, I will dispose of my holdings and take a loss.

      Good luck.

      New Merc

      • 2 Replies to newmercedes320
      • Makes a lot of sense. You think Ali's rev projections and likelihood and timing of design wins are realistic?

      • New Merc,

        I am technically challenged, so I have a question for you. You wrote "the risk factor is tXCC's inability to implement their designs, with a minimum of errors, into the latest cmos process technology. They have failed time and time again to achieve this goal over the last decade for a multitude of products. It has resulted in their IC solutions being too costly and with too man work-arounds and has impacted every production ramp forecast". TranSwitch is a fab less company and uses Taiwas Semi as its manufacturer. It would seem to me that it is the fab that takes the design and produces the IC. Wouldn't they be the one to implement TranSwitch's design "in the latest cmos process"? Thank you in advance for your answer.

        Ochs

    • anilkoomar,

      If you are ashamed, I am absolutely mortified. I too believe in the story, but it certainly doesn't look good. My position is 25X yours and at over twice the cost average, if that makes you feel any better. So far, it is by far the biggest mistake of my investing experience. Hey, as Yogi said, it ain't over until the fat lady sings.

      Ochs

 
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