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TranSwitch Corp. Message Board

  • altrfan altrfan Jun 27, 2013 8:45 AM Flag

    Estimates to rise??

    An opposite view from recent post on analyst estimates.....(since there ain't nothing else happening here while we wait to see if TXCC can convince the Naz to allow TXCC some time)..... the high end of analyst revenue estimates for 2013/2014 are ~$29 million and ~$50 million according to Yahoo. This does not jibe with what we are hearing from Ali/Bosi on what they see with HDplay revenue opportunities, especially going into 2014.

    Ali has talked about the 2nd half of 2013 being more about the timing of customer ramps as opposed to whether they will actually ramp at all. (this could be a hedge on his ~$20 million in 2013 for HDplay).....and I don't think TXCC will get $20 million this year, for no other reason that this has been such a massive clusterfark. Nonetheless, I do think there will be a pretty fast ramp and TXCC should be close to cash breakeven in Q3 and solidly profitable for Q4. Given a baseline of ~$2.5 million for legacy revenue (Bosi in the last CC) and ~$2 million in licensing (licensing could easily be a little higher) even if TXCC misses on the ~$20 million revenue target and 'only' gets to the $13-$15 million range for HDplay for 2013 TXCC would still hit (or beat) the high end of analyst revenue for 2013. .....and would exit 2013 with a Q4 revenue in the ~$15 million range.....and that would of course be a huge miss from what Ali has predicted.

    Except it would also mean that TXCC would then be in position to blow away current 2014 revenue estimates. A ~$15/quarter baseline is $60 million in revenue for 2014, and TXCC is going to continue to have new customers coming on line with HDplay going into next year. TXCC will also have HDmobile and HDwire revenue starting up to whatever extent it will along with the 4G LTE might provide.

    My own view is TXCC could get easily be in the $80 million range or above for 2014....which would mean a lot of upward analyst revisions.

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    • The "analyst" is also the stock's underwriter: fwiw.

    • altrfan,

      Without looking at the transcripts, wasn't Ali at ~$42 million in revenue for 2013? Obviously, revenue timing is tough as you are at the mercy of customers, almost all of whom are new, that are introducing new products. If HD revenues surpass telecom in Q3 and TranSwitch is cash flow breakeven, the market will surely take notice. We could be in for an exponential rise in stock price and I will no longer be "stupid".

      Ochs

      • 2 Replies to ochsnerbier
      • Ochs,

        I believe the ~$42 million figure included ~$10 million in revenue combined for HDwire and HDmobile that was hoped for in Q4 of this year. I don't know if TXCC still thinks they will get some, none, or all of that amount this year. I am not counting on it and the analyst estimates shown on Yahoo don't include it. All I am hoping at this point is that first TXCC gets to cash flow breakeven in Q3 and then solidly profitable in Q4. If that happens we should see that share price rise. If TXCC gets anywhere near the $20 million for HDplay for 2013 (along with a couple of those Tier 1 firms allowing TXCC to use their names in PR's) we could see that exponential rise, and if there is any HDwire, and especially HDmobile revenue (along with the PR) I would have to think there will be some major analyst hyping occurring. But for me TXCC has to walk before they can fly.

        Niles,

        From a technical standpoint ( I am not an engineer and overall technology rather bores me) this is an apples to oranges comparison in that the technologies are different but in my experience it was far more difficult and time consuming to qualify an initial technology like HDplay (and now HDmobile). Once that happens however and TXCC has a working, production qualified shippable solution, in this case the one with HDMI and Display Port, adding something new like MHL to that solution, while not 'simple' is something that should happen rather quickly, which Ali has alluded to in saying that there could be revenue as early as Q4 of this year. The difficulty is working out the bugs initially. Once that happens it generally easier and faster to tweak it, which is all TXCC is really doing by adding MHL.

        I will note here also that close to 2.5 years after TXCC first announced that the company could combine HDMI and Display Port on one chip that Ali is still saying that he knows of no competing solution on the market that can do what TXCC can do. It obviously isn't that easy.

      • I noticed TXCC's new HDplay/MHL chips, the 44151 and 44155, are now on the website of BNS Technologies who is their Korean distributor.

 
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