Either few additional patients (current enrollment or less) will be needed to complete the study which will cause the stock to spike; or more than the current number of enrolled patients will be needed, in which case he stock will tank.
A binary event that will define this stock and this company,
"A binary event that will define this stock and this company,"
The stock will get punished if the interim data is bad, but this is not a binary company and the company will not be defined by the results. They have multiple shots on goal. Next up CE Mark for cardiac device, a billion dollar market opportunity.
Agreed that this isn't a 1-shot company, but there is really only one near term catalyst and it will significantly move the stock. If they get good short term data, then the cardiac device comes up good too, then this stock rockets upward.
I believe that the market will see what is needed, and that it will be a telling statistic. Meaning, if 900 more patients are needed, that will be hugely negative. If 400-500 are needed, it will be a non-event. If less than 400 are needed, it will be strongly positive. So I don't think the market is looking for a specific number, but will respond to whatever that number is based on what comes in. The lower below 450 it is, the much stronger the positive reaction will be. The higher above 500 it is, the more hugely negative it will be.
450 was picked in order to provide sufficient statistical power to file an NDA if results are good and there is little chance that fewer than 450 will be sufficient since they still need to establish efficacy and that hasn't changed -- cognition is an add-on. Hard to say what the market will do, if the DMC comes in at 450, but if the number is above 450 stock will get punished. Those expecting fewer than 450 (like Gregorivich) are likely to be disappointed. If the number is around 450 and the stock sells off--buy more. A partnership deal will happen with high teens to low 20's royalty rate, plus milestones. Schizophrenia mkt is about 14B annually. Abilify sales surpassed 5B last year.