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Vermillion, Inc. Message Board

  • marlin888 marlin888 Jun 9, 2013 9:35 PM Flag

    More people will realize value of VRML now

    that SGO has "endorsed" OVA1 last Friday June 7. This is a precursor to ACOG providing guideliens as both work together in this area. Pressure abound to payers. So here's how I see valuation:

    1 Total # of shares outstanding inc warrants 35MM
    2 From Quest VRML currently receives $110 per test. Given the latest developments with Quest (company changing the dynamic as per their recent 8k) and with better payer coverage company will receive ~$220 per test
    3 worldwide they will sell 500K tests per year
    4 For company valuation it is appropriate to take top line revenue - i.e. $635 per test.
    5 being conservative just taking $220 per test at 500k test per year equates to $110M annual revenue
    6 $110M x 8 multiple = $880M (revenue will be recurring annually essentially)
    7 $880M divided by 35MM shares equates to a SHARE PRICE OF $25.14 (twenty five dollars plus)
    8 today's share price is $2.76
    9 if we reduce multiple to conservative 5x value is $550m / 35MM shares which equates to a SP of $15.21 (fifteen dollars plus)
    Whichever one chooses it is irrelevant. With SGO (and therefore ACOG round the corner and better payer coverage) a stock price of $2.76 is Christmas come early. GLTA

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VRML
1.76+0.0300(+1.73%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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