Your posts continue to amaze me. You carry on about Abbott having no blockbusters like Viagra or Zantac in the pipeline. If D2E7 is $1 billion just for RA and $5 billion peak year for all indications, does that not meet your standards of blockbuster? Atrasenten in 04 will be multi hundreds of millions of dollars. Abbokinase will be between $100 million and $200 million. Meridia grew 50% this year, by $100 million, despite horrible problems. Kaletra is booming. Omnicef has grown by 50% for 10 quarters in a row. There are other compounds in late stage development that are not far from clinical trials. Abbott is said to have the strongest oncology pipeline in the industry right now. Either you are trying to annoy us or you are so entrenched in your anti ABT thinking that you�re missing what is right in front of your face. The pipeline is not empty and the pipeline has at least one blockbuster in it. Also, the FDA would not have granted the Access program if there were any potential regulatory issues, so D2E7 looks to have a clear regulatory path.
<That's what really gets me about the Congress's failure to negotiate a drug program for the elderly poor, in particular. It's immoral in my book.>
You raise a very interesting issue. There is a very hotly contested race in No Indiana between
wannabe Republican Chris Chocala(sic) and Dem Jill Long Thompson a former congresswomen in a restructured district. Medicare is hot issue, he acuses her of raiding the medicare fund 7 times with her votes and being a sponsor with now infamous Hillary Clinton bill. She says he wants to privatize medicare(actual quotes in Ft Wayne paper) and is a wealthy businessman who owns $300,000 in Pharma stocks, taken Pharma PAC money, and is fighting along with Bush a Drug bill.
AOK, lets face it. As long as we have such a polarization in Congress, deep lobby pockets from Pharma and any bill that may get passed will be so watered down to actually help our senior citizens. You will still need a significant amout of money to continue to buy your medicaion. My ex's mother is 84 and takes 11 pils a day at a monthy cost of over $1,000. Now she can afford it to be sure, but it still an excessive burden. Now others will argue that is the cost for staying alive, true but she's paid her taxes and social security payments for the previous 50+ years of her life. Shouldn't we give her a little relief? Should we take care of those that are forced to make the choice between food and medication everyday or month not haave to make that choice?
Its a very complex series of events; we investors expect greater share appreciation that comes from the sales of high margin blockbuster drugs. Which in turn requires high prices to recover drug discovery costs and keep those margins high until its patent runs out and then begins to lose over 1/2 of its value and requiring the next big high priced blockbuster to take its place. Can we have it both ways; less impact on our senior and share appreciation for investors? I believe that we can, but only when both sides are creatively ready for compromise and will back off of their entrenched posturing. When? "Its the economy stupid" Bush will not let this or irate seniors to be his downfall in 04. After this election, we will witness a more proactive GW to get a meaningful bill passed. He will jawbone both sides including Big Pharma. BMY's former CEO, Charles Heimbold, gave over $500 million in PAC and personal funds...it paid for his Ambassdorship to Sweden. He will get industry to back off, and either make Daschle look like an ass. He cannot have a watered down version this would be just as lethal to him in 04. IMO, the War or the the rhetoric about one will not prevent this from happening. This GW diversionary tactic will not hold up before the 04 elections. Thank you, I'll step off of my soapbox.
Yes, the pharma division seems to be pulling itself up...but what about the rest? Diagnostics is an absolute disaster, Ross is not doing much better. We have to look at ABT as a whole...D2E7 is really nice...seems to be coming along, but not a sure thing. The rest of the current portfolio are small drugs.
When is ABT going to decide what it wants to be when it grows up?
why does abbott have to make that kind of decision? diversification has been the biggest benefit to the company - it's what allows it to absorb things like the a.d.d. situation without it turning into a total disaster..
It is not just ABT, it is all the pharmas. I have said it before. Many of the new drugs are complex and terribly expensive. Will they be effective as the body begins to "reject" them?
No one knows. And don't start on human protein etc. The pharmas need new drugs that can be prescribed by primary care physicians and at a reasonable price. Are they out there? No, and if any company has a promising pipeline by my definition, I'd like to hear about it.
You all leave MTG alone, I feel he will have an epiphany on this board, like Paul on the road to Antioch, or was it Damascus?
You want drugs that are prescribed by primary care physicians. But just because you want them doesn't mean that that's where the big money is. If D2E7 is prescribed by rheumatologists and does $5 billion, that's fine with me. Rheumatologists writing to the tune of $5 billion is no different than G.P.s writing $5 billion worth of scripts from a commercial standpoint.
Abbott is aware of rejection and resistence. In the conference call yesterday, they were talking about the drugs that will come in the future to supplement or replace Kaletra as patients develop resistence. There hasn't been resistence, but Abbott has created it in the lab to help work on these new drugs.
I think that for a drug to be a huge commercial success it does not need to follow your line of thinking. There are other ways to get there.
No epiphany on the horizon for MTG. Too many people have tried. Once in a while he says something clever, but mostly stays mired in bitterness.
Persh- What do you suggest witch doctor's brew for healing? As for MTG he can't afford to move from the Round Lake Trailer Park to Antioch he hasn't had a paycheck for years and besides Newby doesn't want him living near him!
...and Plute's Key West post is bordering on homophobia. Time for Ponty to roll in. He agrees with me, or better yet, "respects" me.
The General, and still leading this board to a better life.