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Abbott Laboratories Message Board

  • onlyonpaper onlyonpaper Nov 18, 2002 2:25 PM Flag


    I've commented on CDP-870 in previous posts. Pharmacia had agreements with Celltech to develope this "polyethylene glycolated humanized anti-TNF antibody". In some respect it is Remicade with PEG attached. PEG offers protection from blood stream elimination thus longer serum half-life. It just started phase III and won't be on market till 2006 (source: & HSBC securities). There is no guarantee that this will make it because of the PEG (long term effects unknown). The antibody segment is part mouse part human (that's why it's called humanized as opposed to fully human like D2E7). By 2006 ABT will be ready with its next generation fully human anti-body (J-695).

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    • Barron's is correct as at Sept 30, 2002.
      Since that date they have closed on two sales --one for 370 million and another for 50 million and of course their deal with Ligand.
      So they will be up to 1.1 billion in cash.
      More than enough to pay off those bonds due DEC 2003.Elan will still generate btw 800 million to 1 billion in sales annually with their current product portfolio. Elan's CEO said in a conference call that Elan will be launching a blockbuster every couple of years for the next 10 years!
      So liquidity is not an issue.
      On the issue of MS drugs there are not a plethora--there's Biogen's product and Serono's Rebif.
      Antegren is being sponsored by both BIOGEN and Elan.
      If Biogen felt that their current treatmnet was enough, they would not be supporting Antegren.
      In any event--I beleive you buy stocks when they are hated as opposed to loved!
      and it is true--Elan is not in anybody's good books on Wall Street except for the hedge funds.
      I expect that will all change in 2003!!!
      Abbott can only stay flat from here!!
      Note that a generic Abbokinase will be launched shortly probabaly by Teva or Appotex/Barr.

    • I heard that this drug has been pulled and may be reintroduced years down the road in a different form. As my bad memory allows, I think the problem was that its half life was much too long.

      Junk bonds still creeping up slowly. It means hidden strength in the economy. Remember, don't get caught up with the consensus thinking that the economy is terrible. This common thinking is not the ticket to wealth. I even heard an asshole radio announcer talking about the current "recession" the other day. Since when is 3% growth a recession?

      Persh. Those GMAC bonds are investment grade. Don't remember the exact rating. Can't keep the Moody's and S&P ratings straight anyway. They are callable after 4 years, you are right about that. Didn't mean to imply that they were the cream of the crop, but risk is really minimal.

      Lot of pessimism on the board about the future for ABT due to generics etc. Primarily Mlspec and Viscan, but I enjoy their non hostile posts. I don't think the market shares the pessimism. The stock is staying fairly strong. Would like to see an early approval of Humira before year end. That would be a spark. Was a bit disappointed to see that a small company has announced they will be marketing a generic Abbokinase. Need to see it on the market first before being too concerned. It must not be easy to manufacture, or somebody would have been out by now.

      Took a beating today on my 450 shares of HD. That dog is beginning to discourage me. Have owned it since about 94 and watching the profit go away. May have to start scaling out of it when it comes back. Not interested in selling at the bottom.


    • To ABT's froggy pseudomorphine drug?

    • Persh- Waiting for BMY to cut dividend then BUY @ $20.You bailed out of AMSG over $30 but bot back.I don't see any screaming buys yet but after attack on Iraq the bottom will emerge IF we can extract from post-war quagmire...I still remember Vietnam.If not, I fear a depression SAVE CASH!

    • And Pluto, did you express an interest in BMY?
      Or is that my mistake after looking at a lot of ABT posts? I think it has some attractiveness; it is beaten down.


    • Plute,

      I would not pay more than $20 for AMSG. These run-ups to $30 seem to have a pattern but it might not happen this time, so wait, IMHO.

      It has been my understanding ELN is broke now.
      Drugs for the immune disorders, MS, in this case, seem to be proliferating in all me, they have not fulfilled their promise. D2E7, for several reasons may be different.


    • Mispec- Barron's says ELN has only $600 Mil cash & no revolving credit.The $1 Bil in put options due in Dec 2003 leaves ELN broke even with selling $400 Mil in assets by EOY! Elan is in a "desperate situation".....SELL ELN & BUY ABT.

    • Viscani--you might be right about Elan--however, they have 1.1 billion in cash! Will be selling another non-core products segment--will probably get another 700-800 million in cash! Figure by January 2003, Elan will have approx 2 billion in cash.
      They bought back the rights to Antegren, and have an Alzheimer's drug which is being resurrected after failing some clinicals--however some scientists tweaked the formulation and dosage and it appears to be working. Garo Armen CEO of Antigenics is currently acting CEO and is well respected and regarded both in scientific and business circles.
      He is responsible for reacquiring Antegren after reviewing the Phase 11 trial results!
      Elan is suffering from a heavy debt load accumulated during the Biotech bubble and a lot of their investments have declined over the course of the bear cycle.
      It appears that Clinicians who treat MS and Crohns are eagerly awaiting the conclusion of the Phase 3 trials so that they can start using Antegren on their patients--safety and efficacy are indisputable, and is superior to the MS treatments currently marketed, and clinicians would also want to use Antegren in combo therapy with Rebif and Biogen's Amevive.
      In the area of pain management, Elan's pipeline is excellent, and in neurology also.
      Elan is ridiing itself of non-core products!
      It will still have 800 million to 1 billion in sales when the pruning is done, and will have enough cash to pay off the dec 2003 bonds and have a billion left over for future bond payoffs.
      Antegren is expected to have an NDA by March/April of 2003, and it is expected top achieve blockbuster status ( expectations of 2 billion or more)
      I expect that given the weak pipelines of the large cap pharma that overtures have been made to purchase Elan, and Garo Armen and the board feel that the value of Elan is much greater than anyone would want to offer at this time.
      I don't expect Elan will file for bankruptcy, and is currently selling at these ridiculously low prices because shorts are all over it, institutions have rules about holding stock under 10 or 5 dollars, and so has been selling off --however I beleiev once that sell-off subsides, Elan will start to rise higher.
      They are also supposed to announce some significant events over the course of the next 4 weeks--
      Do your own due diligence, but this is what I know at thsi time!

    • I like Low better! HD is having some significant issues!
      I also don't like the HD around my place--poor customer service!
      I would skip both of these actually and buy DNA, or St Jude--those are my preferences-
      I understand the CG issue on Abt--but hopefully that can be minimized with some tax law changes!, or you could move to a tax haven!
      Sun, beaches-- surf, and no tax!!!

    • good analysis and excellent trading on ABT.

      But for ELN, I think it is still a timer bomb.
      Unless ELN stock price exceeds $40, the company won't have enough money to pay off short term debt(put). Then ELN will be forced to put some of its propriety rights. That would be huge blow to the company.

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