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  • libabtinv85 libabtinv85 Oct 3, 2003 6:56 PM Flag

    Friday Observations

    Gentlemen:

    A brutal day for the ABT bulls and those like myself who have too much ABT exposure in our portfolios. Lately ABT outperforms the market on down days and severely disappoints on the up days. Maybe a market rotation going on. Whatever is causing it is discouraging. A disappointing late day selloff in the broad market. Spec, you should learn to be less arrogant on your posts early in the day. The market trades for 6 � hours and the afternoon can bite you as it did today. At least when the condescending one crows, he does it at the end of the day when the profits are in the bank.

    Better than expected employment report today. That�s encouraging. If jobs don�t start to appear in this economy, the liberals will continue to demagogue tax cuts and say they don�t work. If the tax cuts work and create jobs, then the pathetic liberal argument that we should raise taxes looks as foolish as it is. The tax cutters have been in an awkward position because employment hasn�t increased. The valid argument that �Unemployment would be worse without the tax cuts� is a hard sell. We need jobs and hopefully there�s a lot more to follow, although there may be something structural going on in the economy. We have lost manufacturing jobs and now the service sector is no longer booming as those jobs are being exported as well. These jobs that are being exported can be done from other less expensive locations when you have easy, cheap communications from anywhere in the world. Not sure what the politicians can do about it. One knee jerk response may be trade barriers and that is dangerous. The Prolific Spender will probably go along with protectionism if he feels he needs to do it to get re-elected. We may be in a prolonged period of higher GDP, higher earnings but limited job growth. Unless new start up business begin to boom and do the employing. Don�t think large companies will be there anymore. Also, we can�t get too discouraged as it�s still pretty early in the major economic expansion and jobs always show up later in these cycles.

    Plute. The 66 cents per share 4th quarter is in the guidance. There is no upside to meeting this number. Only downside for missing it. Everybody knows about it. Stop hyping. The market doesn't like health care and won't for a long time. This is a trading vehicle only as Booker was moaning about. What's that lesbian's name that you want me to watch on A&E and what time does she come on?

    Lib

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    • what brought u to SD anyway?
      Chicago-so the #1 capital of ugly women?
      Hmmm-
      Chicago sucks!

    • Lib

      This is play money, ABT trades up $5 and then down $5 and its easy money. My next move will be to buy ABT calls. I got stung in Y2K with no stop loss on my CSCO's, otherwise I buy and sell at random. The Omega 3 makes me see stocks under a more positive light (except for PFE), it confirms to me that the market is 90% psychology.

      When ABT reached $58 last year, I placed 3 stop losses at $57, $56 and $55 that very day. I own essentially mutual funds and income stocks (i.e. NFI, JTP, GXP and preferreds) and do not trade much. I need to unload PFE, a stock everybody hates to love.

      I have 2-3 more years to serve in SD, going from rental to residential property for tax purposes although if Davis the Roper beats Goliath the Groper it might not make enough difference to financially justify staying here any longer, State taxes are confiscatory ... and the white man is leaving in droves. The young to better pastures, the old through the chemneys of the crematory ovens.

      GO CUBS!

      Buonanotte! Kiki

    • Neurodex is a combination of dextromethorphan (generic antitussive agent-or cough suppressor DM) plus quinidine sulfate (liver enzyme blocker-slows degradation of DM) which results in longer serum half life of DM, a non-narcotic agent which has potential for use against neuropathic pain.

    • KiKi,

      I know you used a stop loss order on that sale of ABT at $43. Do you always use them? My experience has been that anytime I use a tight stop, it almost ensures getting sold out of the position for less money than if I'd just sold. I quit using them and just sell at the current price and pray the thing doesn't go straight up. Your willingness to pay taxes to the state is laudable.

      KiKi. Are you voting for the Groper (I like that)? I thought you were getting out of California. For Arnold to be doing all this groping would lead one to believe he's not getting satisfied at home. That's hard to believe. You'd think with those Kennedy genes that Maria would be an insatiable nymphomaniac. I also have a theory about men who roam and how oral sex enters in to that dynamic, but will not enlighten the board. But how many guys want to go the rest of their life without.......??

      Happy Sunday to everyone. I hope they show the Eagles game here so I can watch the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. (You wouldn't get in trouble for saying that, even though it's blatantly preposterous.

      Lib

    • General

      Are you talking about a drug for the pain Myles is inflicting to the afflicted shareholders?

      Just curious! Kiki

    • Only:
      Avanir is in phase III on a drug called Neurodex for neuropathic pain. Results seem to be good thus far.
      Phy

    • In March Bob Brinker accurately timed the market bull market to come. He predicted that it would be a bull market within an overall bear market trend, and he stated that such markets in the past have lasted a year or more. One example was the bull market in the early 1930's.
      IMO the current bull market will continue through at least mid-2004, maybe through election, assuming no derailment, and Bush and the republicans maintain power.
      Then, market starts back down. That is not necessarily bad for ABT. In the last bull market breakdown the pharmas were the last to go. In fact, ABT and other pharmas gained in 2001 and early 2002.
      IMO strength in tech continues through year-end '03, peaking early next year, and general market continues to gain ground into '04. Pharmas won't begin to outperform general market until after the techs start to swoon, and after a Medicare drug bill is passed. Medicare drug bill will temporarily remove some of the public pressure for price controls.
      ABT year-end '03 price greatly depends on ADD inspection outcome. It should generally track with rest of the pharma group after that.

      • 1 Reply to snugly60031
      • The charts are eerily similar, I hope he's wrong!
        The difference is an understanding of monetary and fiscal policy today versus the 1929 to 1933 period!==at least that's what we tell ourselves!
        I think there may be some benefit to converting to cash at some point in 2004!
        The earnings momentum will not last forever!
        If everyone thinks the same way-it will end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy!
        The crash in 1987 took 18 months to recover but it was painful as people became margined to the teeth!
        I'm still waiting for my sister-in-law to reenter the market--when she does --there will still be some momentum left-but not much!

    • This is old news. ABT-594 has led to second generation compounds, ABT-202 (chronic inflammatory pain) and ABT-894 (neuropathic pain) both in phase I. They won't be ready till 2008. ABT-594 opened door to other disease states (drug demonstrated that NNR's play role in pain, inflammation, ADD and other neurological disorders). Another related drug, ABT-089, improves cognition and is in phase II.
      ABT-594 will not go on to phase III.
      NNR=Neuropathic Nicotinic Receptor

    • AoK,

      Thanks for the frog link.

      Persh

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