That was an interesting post on gold. I don't know if the guy's scenario will pan out, but the part about hedging makes some sense.
Plute. If a stock is popular, Olstein doesn't like it. He thinks the market is too high now. He's 14% cash. Says he can't find any really cheap stocks. He also recommended THC and one other that I forgot. He says these companies have had events that cause pessimism which leads to a low price.
KiKi. I sympathize. AoK and the boys on the NFI board think NFI has a lot further to go. Even if it stays flat, it's 11.5% if there's no divy cut. A report came out yesterday saying they will raise the divy by 10% next year and 20% the following year. Maybe by then, MOASS will occur and the stock will be yielding 8% or 9%. That's some sweet capital appreciation if the divy goes up, the short squeeze occurs and the stock is yielding 9%. You probably won't get hurt too bad with TUP, but it's been the same price more or less for a year. If you get 3 points appreciation on TUP, you've got to sell it and find something better. Good luck. All you people need to be thinking about your recommendations on ABT, DOW and individual stocks for January 1.
People I've been talking to are shaking their heads that ABT didn't go up after the announcement last week.
Spec, The present VZ contract expires 12/31/03. I have seen no news that VZ plans not to renew. In fact, as some posters on BCGI board have pointed out VZ is cutting personnel, so that would seem more likely that they would continue to outsource BCGI's services. Other posters have stated that fair value would be $14/share without the VZ contract. Don't know how that figure was determined. Snug
Lib, No one should be surprised that ABT didn't go up more on the successful inspection by FDA of ADD. There was really no excuse for the failures in the past. There would have been no excuse for a different outcome, and ABT would have rightly sold off in that event by several points. At this time all we have done is clear the decks of a bad situation that wasn't characteristic of Abbott's regulatory compliance status as I knew it for the 30 years I worked there. The future upside for ABT lies in the improvement of investor sentiment toward the pharma sector, the fact that we are in a bull market, better sales prospects for ABT products including diagnostics and pharma products, and the unlocking of value for shareholders by spin-off of Hospira (name still sucks). IMO there is limited upside to the bull market, as IMO we are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. I believe the techs will fail first, sometime in first half of '04. This will be bullish for the rest of the market, particularly pharma. ABT should do well at least through 2004 and maybe into 2005, although my crystal ball starts to cloud at that point. Currently I'm in a higher than normal cash position from sale of techs this Summer and Fall, and will be a buyer other than tech and pharma (since I am heavy in that area) on pullbacks anticipated after January effect has spent. Good luck all ABT longs, Snug.