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  • aok1903 aok1903 Nov 6, 2005 12:37 AM Flag

    BD on Energy

    attended a GREAT ideas forum yesterday --

    was a 2hr luncheon and talk with the people from 13D Research ( )

    fascinating guys with real deep analysis of certain subsectors they get drawn to where they see some sort of 'super theme'
    in play .......

    they went bullish on energy back in 2002 along with much of the commodities complex ........... they remain very bullish on energy although believe that alternative energy plays are the best bet going forward ......... very bullish on Canadian Oil sands .......... gave me the name of some small company up there who makes plastic mats that allows the oil sands guys year round access who they think will be a raging homerun ........... they are not as optimistic about shale oil ....costs greater than markets think . they have no idea what oil should trade at , just that it will continue going higher as a rationing device as China and India and other nations consume more oil .

    fascinating fact : prior to the booms in Japan and Korea , the per capita annual oil use was almost a flatline of 2 barrels . As each of those 2 countries evolved from rural farm based economies into industrial powers , oil usage grew to somewhere between 15 and 20 barrels per person annually and where it is in both nations today ......... so where is oil usage in China today ? ...... why precisely at 2 barrels per capita ......... BUT IF CHINA FOLLOWS THE TREND OF JAPAN AND KOREA (AND 13D BELIEVES THEY WILL) , AT JUST 5 BARRELS PER CAPITA , CHINA WILL BECOME A LARGER CONSUMER OF OIL THAN USA IS TODAY AND WE USE 20+% OF ALL OIL GLOBALLY ALREADY ......NEVER MIND IF THEY TOO WANT TO CONSUMER 15-20 BARRELS PER PERSON ANNUALLY !

    they think LNG infrastructure growth in USA will be off the charts .......... that in 15-20yrs time we will be importing as much of that as we do oil today . Cheniere a company they like .

    they can't

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    • oh, and I forgot, probably all in need of a nice Brazilian wax.


    • Yeah, I can see them now, bleached white, pimply and pock marked. Your a**'s that is. I don't think so, never have and never will.

      You guys can talk about ignore all you want, you still read them all. You couldn't not do it.

      Fact is, the teams from TN sucked this weekend.


    • turd,

      You have a remarkable misunderstanding of the board dynamics. Ponty is one of us, loved even. You are not, and never will be unless you come, hat in hand, and apologize.

      You need to humble around a bit. If you want to be a regular and respected you will have kiss an a** or two and repent.

      You could just wind up on everyone's ignore. Not good. your hurtful remarks about Tenn's proud teams may make this impossible.

    • ponty, ponty, ponty,

      No one "can" invite me to stay on the mb. Last I checked you are not the "owner" of the board or either is the private.

      I state the truth. The private and the other one can dish it out but do not like to be on the other end receiving it. You for one have called many who post on the board foul names. How many have you antagonized over the time you have been posting on the board? A little bit of some double standards here it seems.


    • rpc,

      I don't own it!

    • is dead money !

    • Ponty,

      We have had "the ant" and "the board fool," and now let JCMC be known as "turd." A "the" is not necessary.


    • From another very smart guy.

      I'm uncomfortable with the high valuations of stocks in general outside of a couple of sectors that I'm overweight in. The fact that energy is a relatively small component of the S&P today is related, in part, to the bargain price compared to earnings where most energy companies are currently valued and, in part, to the fact that the broad S&P is significantly over valued when looking at P/E and due for a correction of noticeable proportions.

      If I were to look out a couple of years into my very murky crystal ball, I could envision an S&P which had declined from 20% to 40% from current P/E multiples, while energy had increased 20% to 40% from current P/E multiples. That won't make those of us with a significant component of energy in our portfolios wealthy, but it will certainly enable us to avoid a flat to modestly down broad market place.

      I believe in the concept of "reversion to the mean". As such, my investmtents in energy are as much to avoid the likely reversion to the mean in the broad market as they are to take advantage of the likely continuation of the bull run in commodities.

      Of course, I've been fooled a lot and may be out to lunch on this one.

    • ...use two fingers


    • As a % of GNP that is energy cost the US ranks at the bottom, or close.

      Say whatever, but oil sand and shale are expensive. There will be a fight over LNG and it won't be easy. Cheapest LNG can be is $6. That puts a nice floor under SJT and ECA. ECA has shale and tar.

      I almost cried over Vanderbilt losing that overtime with the Gators.


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