Lib, Some of the Saturday AM pundits were saying that because of positive outcome for Merck in latest Vioxx trial, it will be up and that will in turn drive the Dow and other big pharmas up on Tuesday. I have noticed in recent days that the Nasdaq has not been keeping up with the Dow after having surpassed it during the rally in January. IMO that is a signal that the growth of the economy is now seen a little less rosy than back in late January when the Bulls & (no) Bears led by Bob Froelich were all salivating over pie in the sky bull markets for 2006. IMO it is plausible that we will see a Merck inspired rally on Tuesday, but I believe it will be weak and short lived. The negative Nasdaq on Friday is pointing the way for the markets after whatever pop we get on Tuesday. The 4th quarter earnings have mostly been reported, and although generally good, they didn't meet the inflated expectations that caused the market to break out of the range in which it traded during most of 2005. Until there is a new catalyst to drive the market higher, IMO we will drift back down through fits and starts until we once again find the old trading range. Snug
I have commented that the Dow has been outperforming the NAZ and S&P. The Dow is such a limited representation that it has overstated the strength of the market. I do not think MRK can move the market. It might help the Dow to the tune of 10 points or so, but that's about it. Am still nervous about the overall market. Long term bond prices make no sense to me. I've heard all the theories about foreigners buying them etc. It makes no sense given inflation.
Griz. I was just trying to make the point to Plute that if you buy a Canroy, you might have to be patient as they often trade as the commodity does and predicting the commodity price is hard. The divvies are quite satisfactory while waiting. They are good stocks to dollar cost average in to on downdrafts because it just doesn't seem realistic that energy prices will be cheap over the long term. 85 million bpd in - 85 million bpd out with no room for error. Now the religion of peace followers are blowing up pipelines in Nigeria and that matters to world supply.
Ocrepitis. I do not have any of the laggard left, but family members do. If I had any, I would sell part of my position at $46. Not because I think it's going to be a horrible stock, but because of the opportunity cost of holding it. I would not sell HSP. HSP is going to have a cycle where it grows like the laggard did from the 1970's to the late 1990's. There will be ups and downs, but they are too hard to play. I am just going to hold HSP. Bought some more HSP at $43. Also, Boone Pickens says we are misusing our natural gas. We should be using it for transportation and not power plants. Power plants should be coal and nucular.
Was very pleased to see Ponty commenting on the self esteem of our precious children and paying special attention to females. His views surprised me as they were not in compliance with liberal dogma. Very refreshing.
Lob, Thanks for the opinion. I am waiting for Ponte's post as to the likelyhood of ABT's 2 new RX getting FDA approval, a question I asked him on the 18th of Feb. The HSP deal still has me on tender hooks, my gut says sell both HSP & ABT but I have had ABT a ong time. clearly suffering attachment syndrome.?