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Abbott Laboratories Message Board

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  • snugly60031 snugly60031 Sep 17, 2006 4:21 PM Flag

    Market Near Term Peak

    It seems likely to me that the market will go a little bit higher this week. After that, IMO it will trend down for a while. Bear in mind that in spite of the bullish or bearish opinions expressed by the "experts" on TV and in print, after the run-up in '03 off the bear market lows of late '02, the market has range traded since the beginning of '04, albeit with an upward trend. So now, we have had a nice run-up off the mid-Summer lows to the top of the range, and now we are due to move back down. Since the market has been in an uptrend since the range trading began in January '04, my guess is that whatever low we experience in the next month or so will not be quite as low as we got during this Summer.
    IMO it is still worth taking profits in stocks you trade and maybe going short the ETF's. I'm looking at again shorting the Q's and SMH, and this time buying some puts on SPY. By the way I did real well last week buying, then selling the Sep 132 SPY calls.
    My other idea is accumulating good stocks in the energy complex during current weakness, and now that they are at relatively depressed levels. I stress "accumulate" a little at a time, because I don't know when this sector will turn. However, eventually it will turn, and these buys will be very rewarding. I like BTU and WHIT.
    Meanwhile, Big Pharma still looks like a sector that will be improving over the medium term. I believe we will see some really good action in SGP. I'm currently long it and ABT in that space. Good Luck. Snug

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    • snug,

      i may be wrong, but the place to be has been tech over the last few years. many techs have doubled over the last 3-4 years and some have done much better than that. i think tech will continue to do well but i worry about big pharma in the long run.

      despite us aging baby boomers, there are too many politicians wanting to gain votes by beating up big pharma. the business may be sound, but i am not sure about the politics.


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