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Abbott Laboratories Message Board

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  • jd9919 jd9919 Nov 21, 2010 3:24 PM Flag

    FWIW, Cramer is buying

    There might be a link on the web to this document, but I accessed it directly from Goldman's client site.

    ABT's price is down due to Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) - which you, no doubt, have a stake in perpetuating. Shorts should enjoy it while it lasts.

    You won't like Goldman's opinion, but, hey, I'm just the messenger ...

    October 20, 2010
    Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

    ABT’s 3Q continues to show strong operating leverage

    What's changed
    ABT’s high quality earnings (better than expected gross margin of 61.6% and higher R&D spend) stood in sharp contrast to JNJ’s yesterday, and demonstrates the potential for continued strong low-double-digit operating performance going forward. However, overall sales were lower by 3% than our estimate primarily due to the Similac recall (which hit 3Q
    versus our expectations of 4Q) and the Meridia withdrawal. And while Humira sales were a bit below our expectations ($36 million), the franchise continues to demonstrate stability in the US and strong growth OUS.

    We raise our 2010 estimate to $4.18 (prev. $4.16) due to the improved gross margin outlook and modestly raise our forecasts for 2011 EPS to $4.68 (prev. $4.66), 2012 EPS to $5.14 (prev. $5.12) and 2013 EPS to $5.67 (prev. $5.63). Clearly, we are starting to see the impact from Solvay
    synergies and expect an even bigger contribution to EPS next year. Moreover, ABT’s Vascular business continues to post strong performance driven by Xience, and appears (thus far) immune from the pressures seen across the orthopedic space from weak procedural volumes and price pressure. Bottom-line: We continue to see ABT as one of the best positioned in the sector to put up strong earnings over the next several
    years owing to Solvay and improving margins across its businesses. While we expect some headline risk with the upcoming data presentation at ACR for PFE’s JAK-3 inhibitor, the first study is a small 6-month placebocontrolled
    trial. The more important trials will not be presented until 2011.

    We maintain our 12-month price target of $58, based on 12.5X our 2011 EPS $4.68.

    Key risks
    Management’s ability to address dependence on Humira through M&A.

    Coverage View: Neutral
    United States

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