Let's do the math. My father pays $5500 for Reminiscence care at Sunrise. He gets about $3K a month from social security and $3K a month from pension. He's break even. No real problem as he is still sitting on low six figures in assets.
The other side of the equation is value and service. Go shopping for Alzheimer's care and Sunrise stands out like a sore thumb. Great facilities, good (as they get) staff, decent food - the list goes on. For $1.5K a month less I can have him in a dismal linoleum floor dump where he stares at the walls all day and eats a hot dog for lunch and a hamberger for dinner. 20 years from now Sunrise will be 3 times larger and 6 times more profitable. Patience will be rewarded.
That's great, happy for you, but your case appears to be very atypical. See June 8 article by Robert Powell at www.marketwatch.com titled: "Separating fact from fiction --- 10 retirement myths and the facts that dispel them".
Over a 20 yr period inflation alone at 3% per annum, with no real operating growth whatsoever, would put SRZ's nominal growth and profitability at least that high. You need real growth to support real investment profits...
Haven't you looked at the demographics for the future 10-20 years? The baby boomers are the largest segment of the population here in the U.S. and they are all just starting to retire now. If that demographic trend alone isn't enough to convince you that Sunrise will be seeing the real growth that you talk about, I don't know what will. Another thing to consider is this quote about the segment (I don't even remember where it's from..but I like it):
"When Baby Boomers reach any stage I life, the issues that concern them-whether financial, interpersonal, or even hormonal-become the dominate social, political and marketplace themes of the time. Boomers don�t just populate existing lifestages or consumer trends-they transform them. "