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Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • niterunner_2000 niterunner_2000 Oct 23, 2008 5:36 PM Flag

    Bloodbath in nursing home stocks

    If you think SRZ has been bad, take a gander at BKD, ESC and KND the past week. It must be a debt issue with these companies. The only one holding up, and remarkably well at that, is ENSG.

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    • Yep - and there's a good reason - compare the balance sheets. Don't have to be too smart to see why SRZ & BKD are getting hammered (not alone).

      Now if anyone can dig deeper and see how much, when and which banks SRZ has to refi with, the clouds might clear on how low this might go. SRZ's biggest risk is with their banks. If they don't lend its all but over.

      Also if it closes below $5 for a couple of days, then look out below as Fund managers will be required to dump. And with short interest below 20% the squeeze won't pop that big as they eventually cover.

      Tough market. Brutal stock this SRZ. Should it blow through the $4.72 low (and it will likely do that today), next level probably $2.50- $3. And that's w/o any bad news from the banks.

      The second mouse gets the cheese.

      • 1 Reply to name2game
      • BUT
        you cannot deny yesterday's SRZ financials release demonstrated improvement.

        So there is hope. But against the toughest market we will see in our lifetimes.

        At this point no one knows anything. Things are happening that are "mathematically impossible", negative yields and flights to quality creating wild dislocations. Crazy.

        Babies. Bathwater. Everything.
        Find the Babies.

    • Hello Niterunner:

      Yes, I agree with you with regards to the serverity of the share price decline among senior care facilities. The blood is flowing freely everywhere in this sector. And SRZ is down over $1.00/share in after hours trading as I write this message. When is thing nightmare going to end? I have to admit that I never expected a "drop off the cliff" type of scenario among these stocks and that especially applies to SRZ when I initially bought in at around $13.00/share with follow up purchases down as far as the $6.00/share level. I really feel sorry for those folks who are holding this stock at much, much higher levels. I've taken a royal beating with SRZ, never-the-less, I intend to stay with it but I'm not buying more until this market settles down. If you have any confidence in a general market recovery over the next 12 to 24 months, there has got to be some incredible bargains among the senior care facility stocks at this point. With that said, I still feel that SRZ will pull through this period unharmed as an organization. Although its somewhat too late at this stage with an average share price of $8.89, I'm changing my sentiment indicator here from "buy" to "hold". And as I've reinterated a number of times, that would apply to a long term "hold" for at least 24-48 months or more.

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT