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Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • giovanniruggero88 giovanniruggero88 Jan 15, 2009 10:04 AM Flag

    question

    anyone think this will go under a buck?i would like to buy another 1500 shares but not sure if i should today or wait for under a dollar. If the refi news comes could we see 3-4 on that news alone? thoughts

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    • Hello Giovanniruggero88:

      In an attempt to answer your question with SRZ share pricing currently at $1.21, I would have to say the chances of it going below $1.00/share are somewhere around 40/60 at this juncture. If it goes to $1.10/share, I personally will be buying more as I remain confident a re-fi package will be negotiated even if it takes us to the end of January which is our drop dead point. With that said, do your own due deligence and decision making since following my advice could potentially put you at complete and total risk. I'm just telling it the way I see it for what its worth to you.

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT

      • 2 Replies to retiredtechie
      • Hello again, Giovanni........

        Forgot to mention in my prior message that if a re-fi happens "with" reasonable terms, its entirely possible SRZ could spike up as far as $5.00/share assuming the general stock market environment is fairly good at the time. In today's environment with emotions running in all directions, I would think $2.00-$3.00/share would be the most I would expect. With that, a re-fi package with reasonable terms in the long term (2-4 years) could take this stock back into the $20.00 to $30.00/share range and even higher over time. I really like this particular investment niche over the long, long term as those seniors are going to be needing more and more care as the baby boomers spike this market place.

        Cheers and good investing,
        Retiredtechie/RT

      • RT:
        1. The drop dead date could also be extended due to dire economic times that we are in.
        2. The current lenders may be considering working with SRZ to renew the loans/loc on better terms as CEO & his team has cut some fat and have streamlined the business for better operating bottomline.
        3. SRZ may offer some incentives like warrants at 5 or 8 for lenders.
        4. Goldman Sach may become the lender with warrants option as they have done that in some other cases.

        Please comment.

    • Yes. SRZ may see 5 to 6 after good news and build a base around there and then go up on good quarterly reports.
      Good luck.