I've already posted this but you probably can't find because businesstrader spams this board with his buffoonery. I give SRZ 70/30 chance for bankruptcy. Even 30% chance they get refinancing it will be on horrible terms. I live near a development that is just tilled soil for 2 years because the builder can't get financing. It's like that everywhere, and will be terrible for at least a few months. Everyone knows that. SRZ has only till 3/31/09. Game over in my opinion.
I disagree with you. What will lenders gain by SRZ going BK? Not much. Also, SRZ will be cash flow positive once Mark Ordan is done with streamlining the cost structure. Also, credit is flowing back again and things will get better with recent govt actions. Mark will never take up a job unless he can turn it around and shine.
And remember, even analysts thought that SRZ would get refinacing before 1/31/09. CEO Ordan even gloated they would get that WELL before 1/31/09. Nothing happened thought, big red flag. SRZ is just an operator. They can't sell many properties to raise cash. Their business model of buying, developing, selling properties is broken with the crash of real estate market. They are at the mercy of creditors. Time will eventually run out on them, refinancing if it even happens will be on bad terms.