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Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • retiredtechie retiredtechie Mar 2, 2009 8:49 AM Flag

    RT: Q4 Shows Beginning Of Operational Improvement

    After a quick review of SRZ's early morning press release covering their Q4 and complete 2008 financial results, it appears the company is in the beginning stages of overall operational improvement which gives me some degree of hope for the future. But with that said, I think it would be a mistake to base survival of this outfit on complete 2008 results which without question are very dire. Everything at this point hinges upon whether or not CEO Mark Ordan can convince lenders to delay default actions against the company. My gut feeling is that he will ultimately be successful in this effort. With the cards on the table for everyones examination, I fully expect the share price to take a severe tumble today - - - and that could take us back to retest $.27/share and perhaps lower. As I see it going forward, its a crap shoot of monumental preportions. I'm therefore changing my sentiment indicator from "strong buy" to "hold" until the air clears a bit. And I'm reducing the chances of a successful outcome with no bankruptsy from 80/20 to 50/50. Hang on to your hats, folks, this one is not over until the fat lady sings. Its only going to get more interesting from here.

    Cheers and good investing,
    Retiredtechie/RT

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    • Frankstll:

      You asked me if I really believe in the monthly figures the U.S. government puts out. To tell you the truth, my faith in whatever the government says has taken a severe tumble in recent years. As for the unemployment numbers, like everything else we hear from them today, their credibility needs to be highly questioned. Given no other alternative source of information, we are made to swallow whatever they put forth for what its worth - - - and like you, I don't believe those figures are worth very much. I happen to believe there is fraud and deception at every level in our national and local goverment today. How is that for an answer?

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT

    • Puregamble:

      Some of your questions were answered in my reply to Frankstll this morning so I'm simply going to leave it there for you. Any way you slice it, investors are on the "hot seat" with SRZ and there is no assurance of a successful outcome. I believe at this point that you have to be willing to lose everything if you, like myself, continue to hold onto your current portfolio of SRZ shares. Here is wishing you all the best.

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT

    • Rt,
      Just a couple of thoughts. As u have stated: "I would not be surprised to see unemployment reach the 12 to 15% level on a national basis before we reach a climax", I do believe we have those numbers now. Do u honestly believe when the Govt. releases ther reports they r giving us the correct numbers? It would cause PANIC. As far as 6600 on the dow I have charted back to the late 70's and just trying to come up with a optimistic plan. High unemployment, Vietnam war, Gas shortages, etc. etc.. Again CHEERS

    • Frankstll:

      Thanks for taking the time and effort to express your view on the general stock market and on SRZ. We have basically the same outlook at this point although I do believe the DOW will go somewhat lower from here - - - 4500 to 5000 is my guess as a final bottom with capitulation in the interim happening on a grand scale. These next few quarters going into the end of the year are going to produce some terrible, terrible "outputs" with regard to economic conditions and that's why I have a very dismal viewpoint from here. I would not be surprised to see unemployment reach the 12 to 15% level on a national basis before we reach a climax. As you may know, its already at 10% in California and that state is now in dire trouble. I really don't see any degree of improvement coming our way until well into 2010 at the earliest, and if it comes, I think it will be a very slow process as this ecomomy has taken a brutal, brutal hit.

      As for SRZ, I share your comments about the conference call. I too listened to it several times and read the full transcript multiple times. I don't know about you but I sensed that CEO Mark Ordan and his CFO were really scrambling which caused their presentation to lack the expected quality level. They are without question staturated at this point with some very heavy weight problems and the time frame for a fix is on an extremely short fuse (March 31st). And, yes, I was quite surprised there was only one question at the end but there again I think that happened by design. I think they simply cut things off prematurely so as not to waste time which at this juncture is extremely precious. As I mentioned previoulsy, my take on this outfit has now been degraded to the point where I view a successful outcome as 50/50 at best, and like you, the final outcome could well be a splitting apart of the entire organization into many individual pieces. Here is wishing you all the best with the general stock market and with SRZ - - - and thanks again for your thoughtful response and opinion.

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT

    • RT: some questions..

      1. What do you make of the CC?
      2. What do you think will happen in restructuring?
      3. Will the current shareholders survive?
      4. Are we looking at major dilution?
      5. Sahreholders equity is down to 138M. Will there be anything left by the time they are done with restructuring?
      6. Why double salary and give CEO & CFO such packages if shareholders are screwed?
      7. Are the original founders still holding their shares in SRZ?

      Thanks.

    • Rt, my opinion on the market is no lower than 6600 on the Dow & S&P 700. My Dow theroy is based on some old charts, S&P I hope will hold so I think we are finally bottoming. Yes I have a good size Buy position .20 - .25 because the PPS right now is the SHORTS HEAVEN! I am sure u know thru experience when stocks on the NYSE fall below $1 Shorts move in for the kill. This has gone on for years & will continue until the problem is addressed. As my opinion on SRZ the Company is WORTHLESS! Terrible CC & only one anyalist! They are not just dealing with problems in the USA but also abroad. I have listened to ther CC 3 times also have read it, again pitiful! This Company is a WRECK. Why do I want back in? People on this board can post all ther stats on SRZ, they are no longer VALID! Again this Company is a WRECK. Why do I want back in? CEO Mark Ordan, for me that is the only reason! He is highly reguarded as a turnaround SPECIALIST. I can see this Company being broken up & will be sold in pieces. Especially ther operations abroad. So RT my view, & like u have posted a number of times this is long term. I have stole your ending, “CHEERS” LOL

    • Frankstll:

      Since your short term SRZ call hit the target with a "bulls eye", it would be interestiong to know your opinion on the general market as a whole with the DOW now down into the upper 6000's. Is this where we can look for a turnaround (bottom) or do we continue to slide further? Your viewpoint would be appreciated if you have the time. If anyone else here would like to chime into this discussion, please, lets here your viewpoint as well.

      On another note and just so you know, I think SRZ is very likely to fall further from here, and like you, I would only buy more if it collapsed down into the .20-.25 cent range on no further negative news. Everything at this point hinges upon CEO Mark Ordan's ability to smooth things out with the potential lenders and in this economic environment, that is a SUPREME challenge that would test the metal of the very best in the business. Given a March 31st deadline, he is really up against the wall and that's why I'm looking at the SRZ situation with a 50/50 chance of success (or failure). But with that said, I continue to "hold" my built up position with fingers crossed.

      Cheers and good investing,
      Retiredtechie/RT

    • Take the number of shares you own and multiply by .4. That's about how much would be wiped out. So yes, that would be "worse than they already are."

    • Worse than they already are? We're almost at the bottom...

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