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Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Message Board

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  • retiredtechie retiredtechie Jan 6, 2011 9:01 PM Flag

    RT: Some Good Advice For Newbies To SRZ

    Dkikuchi:

    I found your lengthy commentary here this evening to be interesting. There is a lot there that I can agree upon with you. The thing I can't agree upon with you is your assertion that SRZ will not recover 50% of its former high of around $40.00. You seem to want to compare SRZ's fall from grace to what happened to the internet stocks during the 2000-2001 dot com debacle and subsequent to that period. My friend, I'm sorry to tell you that is like comparing apples to chickens. The story here with SRZ is vastly different and in no way resembles the crash and death of many of those dot com era stocks. SRZ was brought down by the founders who simply lacked the skill sets to take the company any further and they got themselves into very hot water by making some very poor decisions. By the way, I was very fortunate in that I was never suckered into any of those dot com stocks many of whom have died or have never fully recovered. The bottom line here with SRZ is that the company is being led by a brilliant tactician in the name of CEO Mark Ordan. Beyond that, he has a outstanding support team behind him. He has done an an absolutely masterful job of raising SRZ from near death to where its at today and he will go on to put the company back into a growth and sustained profit mode in the not too distant future. His efforts in that direction will be largely helped by the fact that higher demand in the premium quality senior care niche will meet up with low supply due to the lack of recent new construction. That's a very big deal going forward and its one that I suggest you should re-think. Here is what I suggest to you. Stay focused with SRZ on a long term basis and don't toss my "Promised Land" and $20.00/share scenario in 12 to 18 months out the window - - - embrace it. If you stay around these parts long enough, you and a lot of other chatboarders here will see it happen. With that, Dkikuchi, I wish you all the best and good luck to you.

    Cheers and good investing,
    Retiredtechie/RT

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    • Hey RT,

      I appreciate your effort to educate the new investors on this board. Was thinking about doing it myself and was happy to see you step up.

      I do think Dkikuchi has a point. $20 is an arbitrary number that has more to do with the past then the future. At some point a reasonable value will be attached to SRZ based on various inputs (market conditions, earnings, revenue, comps). You know that and I know that. It may reach $10 it may reach $30.

      What we as investors need now is consistent growth in earnings combined with a stellar business plan that supports growth. From there, Mark Ordan can start presenting at conferences and sell the story to the analyst community.

      Long and strong.

      Pat

      • 2 Replies to patlizapeyton
      • pat......right on.....we do need to see how the various inputs have changed the actual operations. RT: if you done the analysis, please share it. was it by peg, pe, price to sales, pure technical, or what..... Im on you side....just if your gonna quantify a price, howd you get it ?

      • Hi there, Pattizapeyton:

        I agree with you. There is no way that $20.00 can be seen at this time given SRZ's current performance level. That level of share value on my part is merely a long term projection 12 to 18 months out and I do strongly believe its obtainable as long as we have CEO Mark Ordan running the show. And yes, SRZ could well go much higher into the long, long term. The key to reaching $20.00/share and beyond is very visible sustained growth in revenue and profit performance. I'm glad to see you are hanging in there. My very best wishes are extended to you throughout 2011.

        Cheers and good investing,
        Retiredtechie/RT

 

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