I bought into Zalicus in late November at 0.62 cents and have been watching the activity on the board with interest. Unlike many, I am not familiar with the many regulars on this board, but feel that there are 3 kinds of contributors here
1) People who have been hurt by this stock before and want the company to fail
2) People who have entered the stock at its low and want to make a quick buck; In this process, these people produce prophecies that may or may not bear fruit, but try to lure some quick short term profit.
3) People who have been in it for the science, believe in the management, and want to be there if and when this stock hits the big time.
The people in category (3) seem to be few and far between, but count me in as one of them. I may lose a few tens of thousands if things don't pan out, but the importance of Z160 to the human well being alone makes me want them to succeed. Here are some other tea leaves that I will read just to play along with the rest on the board, but these readings do not motivate me to stay or leave. I am motivated by the science and what is might ultimately bring to the market.
a) The management appears to be conservative, straight shooters who are not in there to make a quick buck.
b) Unlike many on the board, I do not believe a buy out will occur anytime soon
c) I do believe that the Novartis partnership contract will be extended on cHTS (TM), but no major uptick out of this for atleast a few more months (if not years)
d) Exalgo will continue to deliver and generate increasing royalty revenue each quarter.
e) Z160 will succeed and through Orphan Drug status will be the game changer for this company in 2014.
f) I honestly dont have any clue on Z944, but if I had to guess, would expect some study design modifications being discussed with FDA (to accelerate time to market, but also to demonstrate improved results)
Overall, I honestly feel that this company is undervalued compared to it's peers or similar companies (when you see companies with 1 drug trial that have just entered phase 3, but have no other revenue at $1 levels, it is easy to reach this conclusion!)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
No matter what the science is, you need to look at the competition out there. Is this really a first class, the best drug out there?
In terms of management, what has the management done to lessen shareholder's impact. There are other ways to finance, and that is through DEBT. This company has been using equity financing too much. It needs to start taking the burden out of the investors, and find other source of financing.
Not because it is a developmental stage company doesn't mean that they shouldn't balance their books, and find other sources to continue their operations. They should be aggressive in finding grants or government funding.
The lackluster performance each quarter almost seem like the company is just too complacent or that they are not that serious in their management. Almost like they are in this simply to profit from sale of their own securities.
User: Were thinking alike. The introduction of non-opioid pain relievers will set the Pharma world on its ear and will be a fine thing for societies addiction problem.
This will be a multi billion dollar market and ZLCS will have a large chunk of it.IMHO
TTMA Jim Long and calm
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Jim - your posts have always been founded on your belief in the science and I sometimes get the feeling that you are rooting for the success of ZLCS for more reasons than the ROI. I wish 2014 were here tomorrow when I can wake up and see Z160 ready to be marketed, but will let the clock take us there as it must.
Sorry, this is not stockmutt or his/her personas. I am new to investing in ZLCS, but have watched it for 3-4 months before that and have spent time after investing to study the patterns of comments from everyone to reach the conclusions above. I dont profess to be an expert at predicting anything, but believe in the science enough to take the risk to stay long term. If your ability to predict my persona matches your ability to predict the stock's future, you should stop predicting pie in the sky theories about buyouts etc and let time take its course.
@Keefriff, the more I consider your post, the more credit it becomes...
His only open door would be by using an absolutely new identity to once again "gain acceptance", but I don't think he will be able to hold this breaking damm all by himself this time round
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sorry meant to rate it buy, but hit the wrong button. New to this format (apologies).
Regarding Z160, my opinion is that a non-opiate pain solution that is truly successful can exceed all wild expectations on revenue. It could be upto a billion dollars. However, I do not envision Zalicus to manufacture and bring the drug to market. I believe that a partnership will occur when the drug is in Phase 3 to bring it to market. The revenues obviously will not be in the billions to Zalicus, but the royalties will far exceed what anyone can forecast (in the hundreds of millions)