My apologies: Ranger, ex-Neuromed CEO Christopher Gallen said 2% chance of success.
Ranger, my apologies. I was incorrect to say that Dr. Gallen said a 1% chance of success. He said there is a 2% chance of success.
This time, I will quote ex-Neuromed CEO Christopher Gallen directly and let you Google it to find the reference:
"At present, “a lot of companies are betting heavily” on CNS drugs and “a lot of compounds are being tested,” Gallen continued. Because the “brain is a very complicated organ,” however, there are “a lot of ways for drugs that go into the brain to fail,” and the great majority of candidate compounds do. For every 10,000 compounds screened for possible use as a pharmaceutical, one makes it to market; only 15% of the CNS drugs in very expensive late-stage testing succeed in winning approval. In recent years only about 2% of compounds tested in humans eventually succeed to win approval as therapeutics. The rates of failure are staggering. Because no one knows beforehand which compounds will succeed, the few compounds that do so must eventually earn the money to pay for the costs of all the research conducted on the many drugs that fail. Every effort to develop a new neurotherapeutic is therefore a “huge investment.”
This is why Zalicus MUST partner Z160 for any phase-3.