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Zalicus AŞ Message Board

  • rul6t2 rul6t2 Aug 19, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

    the real reason ZLCS will run up into October

    It has nothing to do with fundamentals and nothing to do with charting and it has nothing to do with the science.

    It's just human greed. And predicable biotech investing patterns.

    The very real possibility that Zalicus is siting on a multi-billion dollar drug doesn't equal success. The trial could of course fail too. (I personally suspect the chances of it succeeding are quite good based on the PK data from the phase I trial, and the fact that the MOA is the same as Prialt.)

    But the very real possibility that Zalicus is sitting on a multi-billion dollar drug and that come October the data will be here make for a wager that investors historically can't seem to resist. For most it feels like betting on a coin toss where the pay off is ten to one.

    You can rely on people to make that bet. Every time. Particularly on a stock that is way off historic highs. So going into October there will be a run up. This is the buy on rumor part, if you like. THAT much you can count on.

    Which means if you buy now at these levels, you likely can take your principal off the table before the data arrive and still have plenty of shares left in play. Then the bet is free. No financial risk.

    That's a proposition that's very, very hard to resist.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Human greed, it can kill you, or make you rich.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • the chances of zlcs delivering a real drug is about zero. 5-10% of biotech companies manufacture a drug ready for a market, and an even smaller amount make it to market.

      but that doesnt mean zlcs cannot be a 5-10 carpet bagger. zlcs could be worth 1 billion and still not turn a profit. this is how biotech works. all that matters is positive trials, that will run up the stock. zlcs will be a dollar before october to avoid the rs. ive said this 100 times.

      • 1 Reply to tigerw1234
      • I didn't start making money dependably in biotech investing (with plenty of misses still, of course) until I understood that there were MANY more ways to make money here than just to bet on FDA approval of a drug. Tiger is right in that you never know with any confidence if a drug will be approved or even if it will make money if approved. That's a tough game to win.

        But investor psychology IS rather predicable. And PII results are not impossible to call with some regular success. This you can do with with enough savvy and science background.

        And it is possible to earn "free" shares, and play with house's money too. Which is very, very fun.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • ... and we're on our way.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I bought more today for that exact reason! I like to go into risky plays with a small amount. Honestly I bet you almost anything that this stock will yet again go from 0.61 to at least 0.91 within 6 weeks. But will I put all my money in it and make a quick 40% return? No I am still partially chicken!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I'll say it again, thus far the data has been pretty good rendering October's announcement to likely be a positive one, not only for patients but for investors as well.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hard to not make some change with anticipated run up.......

    • this is good reasoning. the only thing that matters short term is the status of the next trial data. if it's negative ZLCS could drop below .30. if it's positive who knows...2 dollars maybe. im kinda bummed because i just lost 1,900 on GTXI and i was originally going to buy more of zlcs but now im not seeing the risk. if i lose on zlcs ill definitely be hosed for quite seom time.

    • mark_in_los_angeles_90049 mark_in_los_angeles_90049 Aug 20, 2013 1:55 AM Flag

      Don't forget the flip side; fear. I hope nobody expects this to be a easy ride, or that sharp corrections won't be involved. Everyone needs a plan to handle the volatility strong emotions produce.

    • FWIW I bought 2500 shares today @0.6248 for exactly the reason you suggest.

      Maybe Z160 works.

      I am not a true believer looking to load the truck. But I certainly wouldn't mind making a few thousand dollars if P2 results reported in October are good. One ticket is certainly worth a buck and a half.

      • 1 Reply to billa_from_sf
      • To be clear, I think the fundamentals AND the science are sound here. The already approved pain drug Prialt is also an N-Type calcium channel blocker, with pain relief comparable to morphine and without all the problems associated with opioids. But it has to be delivered by spinal injection.

        If you could do that with a pill? That's a blockbuster. That's a game-changer in the pain control industry, and that's a multi-billion dollar drug. And that's what Z-160 promises. And the pharmacokinetic data from the PI trial suggest it really can fulfill that promise. That's all very real.

        But it's psychology that drives the prices when good data are hoped for but not yet here. And psychology of investors looking at a potential multi-billion dollar drug from a sub dollar stock? That isn't difficult to predict.

        Investors will be salivating over this stock as the date quickly approaches for the PII data to come out. Which is why well before that date you can expect the anticipation alone to drive the stock up. Way up.

        The only thing holding share price down right now is the same greed that will drive it up very soon. Investors are looking for consensus on where the most recent bottom (the one closest to the PI data release) will be set. Greed drives investors to get the best deal too, of course. And when it looks like the best deal is running away from them, as the bottom is revealed, that same greed will drive investors to jump in NOW.

        It's going to be a fun ride into October.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • 100% agree