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Zalicus AŞ Message Board

  • jakobi007 jakobi007 Oct 7, 2013 6:08 PM Flag

    Z160 P2 Results - The Winning Hand

    According to the research by Jason, this is what we are working with. I see the only losing situation is if both the LSR and PHN are negative. If both show positive results, we are definitely winners. If one is negative and the other is positive, we still win. (see below). Therefore, we have a 75% chance to watch this stock take off and a 25% chance we will lose our #$%$. You can't get better odds than that IMO. 3 of the 4 outcomes result in ZLCS being in a better spot than it is today. You place your bets?

    "In LSR alone, Z160 could have $500 million or more peak sales potential. Other possible indications for Z160 include post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), and off-label uses in diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), fibromyalgia, and peripheral nerve pain. PHN is a painful neuropathic condition resulting from an outbreak of the herpes zoster virus, otherwise known as shingles. We see a $250 million opportunity in PHN for Z160. Larger indications such as DPN and fibromyalgia may offer another $250 million or more peak potential.

    I think it clearly behooves ZLCS to report data from both trials at the same time. There are essentially 4 outcomes:

    Both positive
    LSR positive / PHN negative (highly unlikely outcome)
    LSR negative / PHN positive
    Both negative

    LSR started enrollment 3 months ahead of PHN, but the PHN study is the standard "proof-of-concept". Above I talk about how when the PHN study started then had 25 centers. Now they are up to 53. That was clearly designed to accelerate PHN to catch-up with LSR.

    Management does not want to report a failure in LSR and then a week later a hit in PHN. The market will ignore the hit because everyone would have already sold. So, if they are more confident in PHN, you accelerate PHN to catch-up with LSR and you report both at the same time. This way if you go 2-0 it's a home-run, but if you go 1-1 it's still a win. LSR is tricky. PHN is pretty straightforward."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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