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Zalicus AŞ Message Board

  • mathwizmjd@gmail.com mathwizmjd Oct 21, 2013 2:15 PM Flag

    Question

    If this Z160 drug works, what evidence do people have to back up their targets of $50? I don't understand where these numbers are coming from. Have there been any similar stock situations where that has happened?

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    • Several years back NBIX went from slightly below $4 to the mid $40's in a 7 month span.

    • Z160 has blockbuster drug potential. If approved, we could see earnings of $1 - $4 BILLION annually. With 22 Million shares outstanding, that's earnings of $45 - $180 per share EVENTUALLY. With a modest P/E of, let's say 6, that brings us to $270 - $1080 per share. Sounds unbelievable until you do the math.

      BUT, that most certainly will NOT happen any time soon. Still talking 2 - 3 years minimum for NDA, and that's IF phase 2 and 3 go perfectly. Up to another year for an FDA approval (though Orphan drug designation should help us here), and then another 3 to 5 years to reach blockbuster sales with multiple indications. So could this be a huge payday? Yeah, it could. But I think we're 6 years away from maximum value, even though you could walk away with a decent gain within the next couple of months/years.

      If Z160 is a failure, it's pretty much game over for ZLCS, imo.

    • The longs want new money from the uninformed to buy onto that story. Z160 has a very small target audience , so, get the hell out why you can. Just look at the charts.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • This stock won't hit 50 a share unless they have a 1.2 billion dollar market. If phase 2 trials go through it would show a potential market of around 300-500 million to start. Since this is phase 2 I could see the stock popping to about 10-15 a share early on. If the FDA gives it breakthrough designation which it could if it doesn't show any horrible side effects (hasn't so far), then it will act as if it had already been approved which would maybe bring it to 15-20. It could continue to go up with the idea that the drug could expand to other markets also. This is just my opinion.

    • Short answer, no one ACTUALLY knows. There is no evidence or way to truly predict the future PPS.

      There have been so many drugs that gained FDA approval with lofty goals in PPS that were never attained. Many others with reasonable expectations that were far exceeded in the end. Take a look at AMRN. Made it's way into the mid teens after approval, management apparently refused a buyout over $20, now it's headed towards bankruptcy.

      It's totally reasonable to assume though that if Z160 has good trial results and finds a partner, buyout, or completes the trial to gain approval, then it will be worth several times what it is now. Maybe only $20, maybe $50, maybe $100. Depends on efficacy and safety in the end. As the market for such a drug is definitely there and it's not something over the counter like fish oil.

 
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