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Zalicus Inc. Message Board

  • allan.brantley allan.brantley Oct 25, 2013 1:15 PM Flag

    My Valuation

    If Jason N. values ZLCS at $14 with both PHN and LSR being positive, then what would a suitor value it at when looking at a buyout? Also, Jason's $14 valuation doesn't account for anything else. If you take his $2 valuation assuming both studies fail, then that is what everything else is valued at in his mind. Therefore, he should have stated that the PPS valuation overall for the company if both studies come back positive will be $16....

    I honestly think that this is still too conservative. Of course, for every day that goes by, his "discount back to present day at 15%" gets less and less from an equation standpoint....

    And most importantly, I disagree with his "conservative 3.0x price-to-sales multiple to that figure" as I am more in line with a 6.0x price-to-sales multiple. This alone, doubles his estimate.

    Therefore, I calculate a PPS of $32... ($14 + $2) x 2

    Now, insert a suitor into the mix and what are they willing to pony up, definitely not fair market value, maybe 1.5 times. I calculate a buyout offer at $48. Let's just call it $50 for good measure...

    All in my opinion of course...

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