JAson Napodano wrote in his last article on SA : ".. For example, going 2-for-2 in these Phase IIa studies means the drug can probably capture 25% of the market from Lyrica and generic gabapentin. That pegs peak worldwide sales in the area of $1.5 billion. Under that scenario, Zalicus' stock will skyrocket on the news. Specifically, if we peg Z160 sales at $1.5 billion in 10 years (assumes 6 years to approval and then 4 years to peak sales), give the drug a 30% chance at success, apply a conservative 3.0x price-to-sales multiple to that figure, discount back to present day at 15%, and then divide that number by the current outstanding share count of 24.6 million, we get a stock price of $14. "
I think that the 6 years for approval should be an overstatement, in consideration of the Orphan Drug State and the recent FDA stance against opioid. Am I wrong?
Are U on drugs? This thing still needs to get approvals for PIII and maybe even more money (provided PII data are acceptable), recruiting, go through PIII, data analysis, submission of the NDA yadda yadda yadda. We are already at the beginning of 2014 and you think that all this including FDA approval of the manufacturing facility and quality controls etc. is gonna take place in the next 12-24 months???? I don't think so. In this instance, you need to focus on the journey and not the prize. The hurdle before us is a successful PII...take it one step at a time. Even if all the stars align and the ducks are in order...12-24 months is a pipe dream...not even on the radar screen.