Someone with medical bacvkground can explain this passage of the article? (It looks to me that the drug is working):
" Corrigan says that most patients with PHN come in with a score between 6 or 7, and those with LSR typically about a point lower. He says a 2-point reduction in pain is the type of result that would make Z160 competitive with Lyrica or Cymbalta. "
There is no indication that the drug is working.
It just says that it is more probable that it SHOULD work on PHN -- which is definitely nerve pain origination.
The LSR trial, in my opinion will fail...BUT, if this one somehow happens to show efficacy then this will definitely be a blockbuster drug.
This drug is designed for "Nerve Pain" so the PHN trial should be the best shot at success.
I have researched this drug for quite a while and it is not a drug that can replace opiods, it is simply not that powerful or effective, but it possibly could help with Diabetic nerve pain, which there is a big market.
If the PHN study proves to be successful then they will move on to do Diabetic Nerve Pain trials.
There is a very Long way to go yet, but these trials are definitely what you would call "Binary Events" as they will make or literally break the company.
If both trials fail, ZLCS will go bankrupt.
Z160; from every study I have read is NOT a powerful pain killer, but IS Effective against a specific nerve pain that other powerful narcotics have trouble treating....doctors do not wish to prescribe them so they are turning to Lyrica...Z160 would be very much prescribed if it proves successful, just for that reason of doctors not wanting to prescribe something they could get in trouble for.
This is a HUGE trial....my eyes are focused on the PHN trial as this is the one that I personally believe will have the best shot at success.
The hope is that 1 out of 2 succeed.
The result will be very interesting to read.
They won't go bankrupt if both fail. A sale of the company would be their option as Corrigan indicated. They still have Z944 that has already shown it works with the LEP testing, along with all the patents and collaborative work with Novartis, Amgen, Esai. They could be bought up between 60M-150MM depending on who it is. A fall to 2 as JN indicated would put the company at a 44MM market cap. A buyout between 2 and 5 might work but it could go a bit higher if there is someone that wants to further develop Z944 and Z160.
We will not know how "powerful" Z160 is until trial results. There ARE no extant studies that could that anyone that. I know. I have studied them all. The animal studies suggest very powerful analgesia, but we still have to wait for human confirmation.
LSR patients for this study, probably for the very first time, were tested beforehand to zero in on neuropathic pain as the true etiology. In the past, other company's LSR studies most likely lumped in all kinds of pathology that resulted in lower back pain. For that reason Z160 has a real shot at treated this subjects in this trial. It's a tribute to Dr. Versavel's expertise that these tests were done to help cull out patients the Z160 might be less likely to help.
In that statement he's not talking about any results. He's talking about the pain level (based on 1-10) which PHN and LSR patients report.
He's also saying that IF Z160 can lower that score by 2 points (so that say patient x with PHN reports pain score of 6 pre-Z160 treatment, and then patient x reports a pain score of 4 post-Z160 treatment, and the rest of the patients have similar results) then to him it's a promising result.
Hope that helps/
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