Lets have some fun ..... I'd like to hear what other people speculate the EPS in Nautilis will be in 5yrs and little explaination of how they got there
2008 EPS Breakdown
10% margin --> 0.25
Nautilus Sleep System
15% margin --> 0.60
5% margin --> 0.60
15% margin --> 0.50
Revenue $670M - $1.95 EPS
This estimate is somewhat reasonable, though it depends on a whole bunch of good things happens (Commercial becomes profitable, continue selling Bowflex, Sleep System solid growth and Treadclimber becoming a big hit) ..... though as you can see what happens if they are unable to make Commercial profitable, if Treadclimbe isn't a big hit, Sleep System growth stalls, or their out of the Bowflex business in 5yrs. (it won't be pretty)
Dude learn to read.... I said I would be surprised in Bowflex from Retail Sales would be over 10%. There is NO data on what that is(as this is the first quarter of selling it retail). Retail is notorious for slim(ing) margins. Your making a wild assumption that since Bowflex Direct Sales have 20% Net Margins the Retail Sales will be the same. You'll be in for a surprise....
I believe that in 5yrs Bowflex will sell around 50,000 units, where you seemed to think was a impossibility. At which I pointed out for the current year Barons predicts a 10% decline which could translate to decline to 150k units in 5yrs. Now read between the lines I believe the decline in Bowflex sales will be more dramatic than what Barrons one year prediction would bear out in 5yrs. Does that clear it up for you???
auz, seriously man don't put everything on somebody else. You're pounding out numbers that change drastically every day or two. That's not my problem, either cut it out or stop being so defensive.
You estimated 50k bowflex per mo. then switched to 150k
You said margins on Bowflex were <10%, then acknowledged they are 20%.
"I think they must change their stripes , no choice too much expectation."
I don't believe they will change their stripes, and there is great expectations.
I was refering to net margins (currently around 20% for bowflex/Direct Prodcuts), the gross margins will stay around 67%
True running a store certainly hasn't worked well. I firmly stand behind my statement that NLS will not make as much per Bowflex through Retail as they have through Direct Marketing.
hey auz your finally correct about something , however I asked you a couple of questions and you avoided answering . It seems like you and the flea are the same . you make statements of so called facts but when someone calls you down you disappear .