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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Apr 25, 2003 6:05 PM Flag

    NEW PRICE COMING SOON!!!

    Now, I've read a lot of messages here lately that freely use the fancy neologisms "negative earnings growth" and "trailing earnings value trap." Neither has -- to my knowledge -- ever been posted here with any actual earnings *data*. I'll try to address that in this message.

    data: (000s)
    Year.....Sales...RptdEarngs......Margin
    1994.....4415.....-510..........-11.6%
    1995.....4772.......15............0.3%
    1996.....8517......693............8.1%
    1997....21546.....2421...........11.2%
    1998....63171....12485...........19.8%
    1999...133079....20343...........15.3%
    2000...223927....41626...........18.6%
    2001...363862....66584...........18.3%
    2002...584650....97887...........16.7%
    3year
    mean:..391000....68699...........17.6%
    forecast:
    2003**525000****52800***********10.0%

    I see a very disappointing year. But that's one number ... and in fact only a forecast, not reported data. Even if I act as though the forecast were real data, I don't see any "trend" of "negative earnings growth." I see a bad year.

    I (and my call and stock positions) don't quite get the prospect of bankruptcy from a *forecast* disappointing year (hasn't actually taken place yet, remember).

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