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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • tropicdeposit tropicdeposit Jun 15, 2003 3:13 PM Flag

    Imagine you're the manager in at 17

    back in, say, February 2001. You were gratified to watch it climb to the low forties. You did not sell. You knew that the economy would fully recover in the 2nd half (remember!) and NLS growth projections would be realized. So you held on for 60.,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pd20,2!b200]

    Now, NLS has gone off the right shoulder of a textbook head-n-shoulders pattern --- which echos the November 01 to October 02 monster head-n-shoulders which preceded the 20 pt. drop. You are down 40% in your position. Many of your others stocks are beginning to show real prospect of recovery. What do you do? You look at ONE THING and one thing only: Will NLS disappoint again? Will NLS begin to recover, or will management be confirmed as what it appears to have been?

    You know the history of exercise equipment companies. You know that many of them fold not very long after their faddish product peaks.

    The reason that NLS has sold down is very simple: There is no objective reason to believe its sales will even stabilize, not to speak of recovering, and CERTAINLY not to speak of realizing the kind of pie-in-sky projected growth which NLS management was forecasting BACK WHEN YOU GOT IN.

    Excercise company shares tend not to stabilize. They tend to expand rapidly with a fad, or contract rapidly, with the end of that fad. The rule doesn't have to hold... but when it's not going to, investors DO have to see some evidence.

    There IS NO evidence in the case of NLS. The court loss over Bowflex patents was the catalyst that started this sell-down, and management's track record plus the lack of any objective indication that sales will even stabilize, will accelerate it.

    FEAR of the next earnings report is well-founded. And that fear is what is causing folks who can see the nose on their face to sell.

    The notion that NLS is a turnaround play, now being hyped on this board, is just a childish fantasy, and the only argument advanced in favor of it has been, "Hey, why not?"

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    • Are we talking about the same NLS? Am *I* the one drinking lead paint here? Maybe so.

      But ... what turnaround? Doesn't a turnaround happen *after* some losses??? I'll make it incredibly easy for you: How about just one (1) quarterly loss? Is that so much to ask? Just a loss, even one cent per share. Then you can talk turnaround without arousing ridicule. After THAT, you can at least *attempt* to argue that your turnaround ain't in the cards.

      Until then ... I can only suggest that you go suck some Eggs.


      >The S&D schysters try to profit by
      >stimulating fear.
      >Their goal is to convince investors that
      >every proponent of the stock has ties to the >company

      > S&Ds also intimate that they are looking out
      >for investors' interests.

      >Short and distort players clutter message
      >boards, so optimistic information cannot >easily be found.

      >"Get out before it all comes crashing down"
      is a typical post.

      >If their strategy is suspected by "longs,"
      >they attack the person that has caught them.
      >The market manipulator will do everything in
      >his/her power to keep buyers out of the stock
      >and keep the price heading south.

    • Was that the "Barking Beagle Theory?" You'll have to do "Much" better then "That!!!" hahaha!!!


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