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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • tropicdeposit tropicdeposit Jun 21, 2003 2:37 PM Flag

    P-C's Big Lie: Flat sales are the norm.

    We have a couple of post from Puddle Critter which use different statistical bases to calculate percentage changes.

    The thing to pay attention to is the Hucksters' Big Lie: "Hey, if sales only go down 1 quarter in 3, that's great! That's a 750 batting average!" This projects flat as the norm. BUT FLAT IS NOT WHAT NLS INVESTORS PAID FOR WHEN THEY BOUGHT THE STOCK. What was claimed and what was paid for was rapidly swelling growth. I'm gonna call this "the straight line going up."

    All the fuss is about whether the "straight line going up" is turning into the kind of arc which doesn't end at one end of a rainbow, but rather, in Chapter 11. Those silly investors!They think the MOST RECENT QUARTER is what deserves the most attention! As if where the company was going mattered more than where it had been! Silly investors!

    I absolutely affirm my statements about rapidly contracting sales. That what ALL THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ABOUT. (Heck, I'll even untangle a little statistics, here in a minute.) You notice the stock price has fallen kinda dramatically in the last year? Well, gosh, that's been because of those RAPIDLY CONTRACTING SALES, WHERE THEY KEPT FALLING AWAY FROM THE ASCENDING LINE THAT MANAGEMENT PROJECTED. Was management was untruthful? Do they know what they're doing?

    Those are just two of the questions raised by falling sales, and even more, by falling net revenue as applied to common shares.

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    • This is all very interesting. Maybe if you had weekly sales data you could use most recent week (mrw) numbers.

      Back in the real world, though, we still have annual cycles. And ttm sales are still 60% higher than sales in the twelve months prior to that.

    • Long-Term Sentiment: Strong accumulation below $14

      Tropic,

      You wrote:

      "All the fuss is about whether the "straight line going up" is turning into the kind of arc which doesn't end at one end of a rainbow, but rather, in Chapter 11".

      Explain to me how a company with no debt files Chapter 11. Doesn't there have to be some sort of default on a contractual liability by a debtor for a creditor to end up in bankruptcy?

      Waiting anxiously for your intelligent response.

      Take your time.

      Boomer

 
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