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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • boomerduff_02743 boomerduff_02743 Jun 21, 2003 5:30 PM Flag

    Tropic

    Long-Term Sentiment: Strong accumulation below $14

    Let me rephrase a portion of my prior post.

    Doesn't there have to be a default by a debtor on a contractual obligation or Court sanctioned liabilities for a creditor to force a debtor into involuntary Chapter 11 proceedings?

    Boomer

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    • You know perfectly well that my reference to Chapter 11 as "the end of the descending arc" refers to the case in which, for any company, revenue from sales falls absolutely to the point where it is less than the total cost of operations of the company.

      You also know perfectly well that companies do not, as a rule, quietly close their doors when cost of operation dips below current revenue, but rather, THEY BORROW. You try to twist my post into a suggestion that NLS is overburdened with debt. YOu know well that there is no such statement. THE PROBLEM IS OTHERWISE.

      Your post is quite disingenuous in that you sieze on a phrase from a perfectly clear statement, and, on the basis of the phrase, treat the statement as "NLS will file Chapter 11 tomorrow."

      But the post to which you reply, as you also know perfectly well, is a discussion of what it means for NLS, or any company, where net sales growth between 75% and 30% has been projected, and the sales appear to start rolling over, AT THE SAME TIME THAT MARGINS APPEAR TO CONTRACT VERY RAPIDLY.

      All of the hype here about how "fundamentals are sound," etc etc, IS DIRECTLY CONTRARY TO SALES AND MARGIN TRENDS.Of course, as with any business, all depends ON WHAT HAPPENS TO SALES AND MARGINS. But this is business 101, and you know it. If sales CONTINUE to decline, then there will be a stampede out of the stock which will make the Oklahoma gold rush look like a tricycle race.

      If they come close to meeting 2003 management projections, then the stock price will, IMO, still go down considerably, BECAUSE NLS INVESTORS KNOW THAT "FLAT GROWTH" FOR AN EXERCISE EQUIPMENT COMPANY HAS, IN EVERY SIGNIFICANT CASE, PRECEDED IMPLOSION OF THE COMPANY. If you know contrasting cases, let us know.

      If sales show signs of turning up, then I would guess the stock might stabilize for one quarter at least.

      Lastly, I would guess your appearance here --- I should say the appearance of the voice labeled "boomer" --- illustrates yet another huckster principal, namely, if any one voice gets "embarrased," never mind, just sprout another.

      I wouldn't say that if the purpose of your post was not obviously disingenuous.

      • 2 Replies to tropicdeposit
      • Tropic, I agree that your post was ridiculous ... but how is that boomer's fault???

        Take some responsibility and don't post nonsense in the first place. You're getting nowhere trying to blame the guy who calls you on it.

      • Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Accumulation below $14

        Tut tut Mr. Tropic. Take a chill pill.

        My question to you is serious, not the least bit disingenuous. HOW CAN A COMPANY WITH NO BONDED DEBT OR NET BANK LOANS OUTSTANDING (LINES OF CREDIT OR TERM LOANS OUTSTANDING NET OF CASH OR OTHER LIQUID ASSETS SUCH AS RECEIVABLES AND/OR 50%- INVENTORY)...FILE CHAPTER 11?

        You yourself have said sales are declining. Everyone knows that a company's cash requirements go DOWN with a DECLINE in revenues...they don't go UP. That's why companies with rapid growth have to borrow to expand...they are net consumers of capital...they have negative cash flow from operations.

        You presumption that NLS will have to borrow money if their revenue run rate continues to decline...is simply false.

        And don't accuse me of being a company shill. I make money the old fashioned way...I earn it...on both the long and short side of the ledger.

        Boomer

 
NLS
11.9222-0.2278(-1.87%)12:29 PMEDT

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