sales are down at a recreational capital goods manufacturer. People can put off buying this stuff. At this rate they will make 60 cents a share this year. A $12 price on that works out to a 20 p/e. That is only justified by a growing company which this is not and may never be again.
Hopes of a turnaround will die slowly over the rest of 2003 and the stock will continue a slow agonizing decline in my opinion, as people slowly lose the faith and puke the stock.
I made a little, and I am out. Gotta know when to fold 'em.
Bye and good luck to all.
didn't think anyone would confuse profit margin with whether or not the company was profitable. Profit margins become increasingly more important when it is set on such a downtrend then whether the company is profitable (which, of course is still important).
Common sense would indicate increase profits in 2nd half of 2003, expect that bowflex sales are currently not acting as a typical product. It had sky rocketing Q to Q sales, hit a plateau late last year and is now in a steep decline (Bowflex sales fallen from approx. $75M Q1/03 to approx. $50M Q2/03, and conversely $90M Q2/02 to $50M Q2/03). Common sense if you look at and isolate Bowflex sales trend it will continue to slide in Q3/03.
Earning warnings and another quarter of longs hoping the bleeding will stop.
auz13 -- Your more recent post (margin trend, not profit trend) is accurate. Thanks for the correction.
Still, I'll stand by my common-sense prediction that the strong months of the year are likely to be better for profits!
Revenue Earnings Profit Margin
Q1 $135.9 $24.0 17.7%
Q2 $140.4 $25.8 18.3%
Q3 $152.9 $25.1 16.4%
Q4 $155.4 $23.0 14.8%
Q1 $129.4 $13.7 10.6%
Q2 $100.6 $ 4.7 4.7%
feel free to verify, it looks pretty obvious that Earnings and Profit Margin are on a nasty downtrend. Tis seems undeniable.....
has_been18 offered: "At this rate they will make 60 cents a share this year."
Sadly, math is no longer a strength in the good ole US of A.
They made about $0.60 already for 2003, in the christmasless first half, despite the ad rate squeeze during the war.
Your talking about BusinessWeek's #2 growth company of the year for 2001 and 2002. The economy has been so frightful that people aren't buying bowflexes. Also you've got a company producing "CrossBow" stealing sales from BowFlex. Now Crossbow is called CrossBar. That's a stupid name. Still they'll take sales from BowFlex sure, but not as much.
The major asset that nobody accounts for that NLS has is very very solid brands. This will continue to make NLS a more profitable operation than its competitors.
There is a lot to like about NLS. I bought NLS at 10.41 a few weeks ago, and consider it a safe bet. Their upside potential is huge, and their downside potential is minimal.
People love to work out, and people love NLS's products. I love buying great companies at reasonable prices, and this sir is a reasonable price.
you must be getting your fact from astboy keep it and you will pass up astboy as the most clueless poster on the the board and that might make astboy mad and he would have to report you to yahoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chances are extremely slim your ever going to see NLS in the top 100 growth companies going forward. Those spectalur growth rates were based on Bowflex sales sky rocketing and purchases of Schwin/Stairmaster/Natiulas.
"NLS has very very sold brands"
the brands are well known and do come with an air of quality, though it didn't help the orginal companies from filing for bankruptcy. Therefore I wouldn't put too much stock in the power of NLS brands names.
I like in the CC how NLS said the NSS sales were going to be flat and they were working on tweaking the marketing. When pressed if this was do to competition, they continually evaded the question and inferred that it was only due to a natural revision in advertising. These guys are in denial, they were in denial before in previous CC saying they never excepted to see any competition with bowflex (much less lossing signficant sales to competitors), now their heads are firmly based in their butt over competition in air mattress business. (and the same will happen if Treadclimber becomes a good seller)
Business going forward, management gets two thumbs down ....