Someday the fundamentals will stop declining and reverse. By the the short ratio will drop from such pessimistic levels (25%!) and insiders will start buying because they will see the value. The question is when and how much? It may drop below $7 within a year, or it may bounce around $14 for the next 5 years. Either way going long today dosn't make much sense yet. I wouldn't short either since I see no reason for disaster.
I wish there were a program that could watch short interest and insider buying trends to notify me when the better informed traders have changed thier mind. By the time this happens I'll probably have forgotten to check on NLS and miss it.
Sorry for the confusion, I see no significant insider activity on NLS. Most of the other stocks I've been looking a strange pattern lately that NLS *almost* matches. My best sceener (market guide) can only identify the quantity of iniseders buys and sells, ot the magnitude. Usually this isn't a huge problem since some of the trades are large enough to pay attention to. But lately there are lots of small buys (like NLS) but one or two big sales (unlike NLS). The total sales tend to serously outweigh the purchases.
So I retract what I said earlier about NLS having lots of insider selling. I don't see it. The short ratio is very high though.
I suspect the apparent brain damaged children posters you see posting on these message boards are actually bots. Surly humans smart enough to type would get bored reasing and posting so much pointless debate. Chatbots are very good at name calling and never get tired.
bravegive -- I'm confused by your message. NLS has great fundamentals as far as I can see (ROE 20%, working capital up every quarter, profits rebounding, economy looking good, strong holiday shopping this year, lots of cash, no debt.) What am I missing? The only "fundamental" that scares people seems to be the share price!
Regarding short interest ... sure, somebody had real pessimistic feelings 18 months ago at $35 per share. So would I! But it's the shorting that drove the price down. If you wait for the shorts to buy 1/4 of the company on the trading floor, they'll run the share price right back up. We're already up 40% since the summertime, on net covering of fewer than 5% of outstanding shares. Once the price bounces back up to the $25 - $35 range, what's to buy? I'll be selling if we see that.
"bravegive -- I'm confused by your message. NLS has great fundamentals as far as I can see (ROE 20%, working capital up every quarter, profits rebounding, economy looking good, strong holiday shopping this year, lots of cash, no debt.) What am I missing? The only "fundamental" that scares people seems to be the share price!" This is a momentary snapshot. As an investor I'm concerned with the next 10 years. Day traders may see this as a temporary bottom, but for me to buy in 2004, I want to sell it for at least 300% profit in 2014. Right now NLS looks set to grow much more slowly than that. Insiders and shorts are selling. Who are they selling to? Do they now less or more than we do?
The bad prospect is the potential of revenues continuing to fall due to lower price and seemingly identical(as far as the typical consumer can tell) competition. NLS equipment IS better quality, but you wouldn't know it by talking to a typical department store salesperson, and thats the problem. If we KNEW sales were going to recover and the company was going to return to growth, then I don't think anyone would argue that NLS isn't a good deal at this price. But we don't know that for sure. I'm very tempted to get in on this stock, but I just can't convince myself that NLS can differentiate itself from the competition.