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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Dec 6, 2003 2:15 PM Flag

    Is it under $8.00 yet?

    Cleaning up after one of big A's capital-letter-laden posts often reminds me of changing my daughter's poopy diapers. Just when I think I'm done, there's always one more bit of crap to wipe up. I tried to dodge it this time but the smell seems to linger until the job's done. Now sometimes, somebody (not to name names) later suggests that these are rose petals I'm cleaning up. To forestall that, I'll show off some of the messy wipes before I take the trash out.

    Big A: "margins and rates of return have CONTINUED to fall since then"
    Q2'03 profit margin: 4.7%
    Q3'03 profit margin: 5.7%

    Big A: "it is CLEARLY obvious that a company with falling revenues, earnings, margins, and rates of return has a LOT wrong with it"
    Q2'03 revenue 101 mm, qtrly eps $0.14, ROE per qtr: 2.2% (equiv annual ROE 9%)
    Q3'03 revenue 116 mm, qtrly eps $0.20, ROE per qtr: 3.0% (equiv annual ROE 13%)

    It's fair to say that every numerical claim in big A's post is backward. Incidentally, most of Big A's supposedly-reliable "3-data-point trends" reversed themselves on data point number 4. As conclusions based on carefully selected subsets of the available data tend to do.

    I won't even address Big A's attempts to wriggle out of his strong sell recommendation at $10. In my humble opinion posters should take responsibility for their own posts. Period.

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