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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • claygarrett0 claygarrett0 Jan 2, 2004 12:21 AM Flag

    News. for Astral

    Saw you on the MTON board. You seemed pretty cool there. Here's something to spirit the longs. Good luck.

    One of Pierre's favorite stocks is Nautilus Group (NLS: news, chart, profile), a seller of health and fitness products. "The company is hitting on all four cylinders," Pierre said.

    Nautilus is debt-free, with a strong balance sheet, and shares trade at a low multiple relative to its return on equity, Pierre said. New product introductions, such as an adjustable dumbbell, will lead to an earnings turnaround in 2004, he added.

    Shares of Nautilus closed Wednesday down 4 cents at $14.05.

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    • Yeah, if you don't know anything buy the Vanguard total stock market index (the cost is about 20 basis points). As far as paying 3%, I would consider it if the MM has a very good track record. In other words, I'd be willing to pay that fee for great performance. Unfortunatly, the people who can justify that kind of performance probably prefer to invest their own money.

    • Yeah, I agree that small investors who take the homework seriously can currently beat the averages. But the average investor can't, sort of by definition. And mutual funds can't, because the individual investors all insist on tracking every bubble on the upslope. So the funds have to buy crap or lose deposits.

      IMO cheap index funds (0.3% or less) that really buy and hold the member securities are a pretty good deal for folks who won't/can't/don't do the homework. The real scams are the active funds that charge 2%, claim to be Value, and invest in like Mexican derivatives, or the "personal money managers" who charge 3% or more to put you in basically a short term bond fund (i.e., 3%).

      But homework is out of fashion, and hopefully it will stay that way!

    • "S&P 500 return, 1997 thru 2003: 7% per year
      S&P 500 return, 1990 thru 2003: 8.5% per year."

      I think it's pretty easy to beat the indexes if you just do a little homework. There's a big push my the mutual fund companies to say, basically it's impossible to beat an index. In other words, George Soros has just been really really lucky for the last 30 years. So buy our index fund and give us our cut of your money. That's a bunch of crap. I guess if you don't know what you're doing an index fund is a great choice, but the argument that there's no point in even trying to learn how to beat the index is pretty annoying. It's even easier to beat an index when you don't have Billions of dollars to invest or have to worry about the weak hands that hold shares in your fund because you know you can tollerate risk.

      PS: I'm not attacking you Astral. I know you didn't say it's impossible to beat the indexes, just one thing that has been bothering me lately.

    • Sorry, rv_weber, I can't really figure out how to respond. I get the feeling that you're trying to debate something from my post. But frankly, all I can dig out of your message is some silly hair-splitting. Sorry, guy, but since your only explanation was to repeat your exact words I gotta do my best without your help.

      FWIW, I agree that for 50.00% return from $14.0000, my trading range would have to be $21.0000 not $20.0000. And I agree that three days before earnings come out we probably WILL know when earnings are coming out. Though we don't know right now what month that will be.

      If those are really the points you're making, then consider them made ....

    • <<<Your contribution on earnings timing sounds scrappy and argumentative, which is cool, but what's your actual point? >>>

      You said (exact words) "Q4 earnings are coming ... Who knows whether they will come out in the next few weeks, or with the 10-K in early March? Could be any time".

      My point was clearly made in my reply:

      "They will announce when Q4 earnings will be released. It does not just happen without notice."

      Where is your confusion?

      Ad far as you saying 50% on your portfolio, you said:

      "Maybe NLS will stick to the $14 to $20 range for another year or two while the retail business expands".

      NLS is currently trading at $14, so even if it reached the high-end of your projection - $20, that is still under 50%. More importantly, if it takes two years to do that then you are earning 25%/year. But what is your opportunity cost, and what is your risk of putting all your eggs in one basket?

      Don't get me wrong, I am actually bullish on NLS right now. I am looking to get a 20% return in the next 3-6 months. But, I would not wait two years and gamble on a 50% return.

      Good luck to you, though.

    • Could anyone explain this product? Any idea of the market/revenue potential, etc.? Does NLS have a patent on this new design?

      Loved the Moody's analyst comments!

    • Thanks clay. I certainly agree with Pierre.

      I'm also hoping for some fireworks when the Q4 earnings come out. Sounds like this Xmas was a pretty good one for gift-sellers.

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