JMO, but I think that bears may still be overreacting just a bit to one year of low earnings -- a year when most folks selling to consumers have had similar problems.
doggy, I applaud your modelling efforts and hope you'll keep us up to date. IMO shorts are overdue to look beyond some of the past year's "fear, uncertainty and doubt" tactics. Sure, that stuff served them well in beating the stock down to 8x forecast earnings + cash. But maintaining depressed prices will require some more meat.