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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Aug 5, 2004 12:02 PM Flag

    let's get one here right

    Yes, that's right. But I don't really think the picture works. I don't think those guys ordinarily have the mentality or the cash to build up tens of millions worth of one stock.

    I think it's more likely long-term short sellers. Those guys have been paying dividends for the use of a shrinking amount of cash. As the share price rises, the cash gets sucked back into escrow. The motivation to hold open short positions is considerably weaker than it was at $14.

    (Or it could be that somebody out there has figured out the outcome of the price war with Icon ... or convinced his boss that he figured it out. Or it could be momentum types.)

    But even if my "short story" is right, I think it's usually impossible to make clear share price predictions that way. If shorts ARE most of the demand for the stock, and a few big players realize that, then they will stop covering and let the price fall.

    So trading is very tricky, at least for me. I stick to value for price.

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