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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • rjr2gordon rjr2gordon Dec 20, 2004 1:34 PM Flag

    pump up this stinker

    Pump up NLS now, just before year end, there, Hammann, get that bonus up as high as you can. Don't worry about what happens to the stinker after you get your money out of it.

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    • Correction. I called 3.1% "too much." Of course I meant "not enough."

      Good thing I didn't become a surgeon.

    • trubulator,

      Thanks for the thoughtful responses.

      IF margins don't improve, then Nautilus is probably stuck with a maximum long-term annual growth rate roughly equal to

      (free cash flow - dividends) / (noncash equity).

      =($0.75 - $0.40) / $4.00

      = 0.35 / 4 = 9%.

      Nine percent, once we allow for risk, isn't a real good return. So, probably wisely, management has been refusing to feed the retained earnings into that equation. If they develop a new blockbuster product, great. If they go on an acquisition spree, well, not so great. If they paid all $0.75 out as a divvy, well, that's only 3.1%. That's too much. I can get 2.5% on a one-year CD at effectively zero risk.

      The low margins cause this problem. The same plant supports the same revenues, but with less money left over for investors.

      The only way to break out of that is to improve margins by evading competition. Icon's Crapbow or whatever seems to be here to stay, so they're down to new products. I hope it works, because by my count half of the stock price is a wager on a very successful new product.

 
NLS
12.55+0.17(+1.37%)3:25 PMEDT

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