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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Jul 12, 2003 2:53 PM Flag

    Deleted Message

    I think that my original scenarios capture your "D" case just fine:

    If you want to include a little for individuals with exotic opinions like $0 intrinsic value, give 'em 5% off the "G" case.

    "G": (business fails & goes into liquidation)
    $5 per share intrinsic value.
    45% probability

    "D": $0 (bizarre, unlikely case. executives go to Brazil with all the cash & trademarks in a briefcase.)
    5% probability

    "E": (repeat of three-trailing-years)
    $36 per share intrinsic value.
    50% probability

    total: 45%*$5 + 5%*$0 + 50%*$36 = $19.75.

    That I can live with.

 
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