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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Aug 1, 2003 4:40 PM Flag

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    No, smile, my posts were accurate. To review, the error was in auz13's initial post, with its inaccurate claims.

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    • "Even if NLS is able to make analysists rev. estimate of $124M, they need profit margins to rebound from 4.7%-Q2 to 7%-Q3(Q4) to make EPS. This would require a dramatic reversal in NLS earnings trend the last 6-quarters, which seems unlikely. The stock will be punished again in 2-months when the lower Q3(Q4) earnings, though they could score a victory if they come in with 4-5% profit margin."

      The orginal post clearly talks about earnings and profit margin. No where do I talk specifically about "being profitable or not profitable". Unfortunately I mixed Q3 with Q4 numbers (not sure how that happened but I going to blame Yahoo). Right or wrong I don't care to start another annoying flame war and I believe the numbers I posted speak for themselves.

      • 1 Reply to auz13
      • One of your previous post answers this question. It is a matter of operating leverage as volue goes up the fixed cost become smaller as a % of sales thus ruturn on sales goes up. At sales of $100 million last quarter they operating leverage worked in reverse thus margins compressed. Last time they has sales around $124 million (which is the 3rd quarter estimate) they made about 10% on sales so the 7% hurdle that you mentioned should not be too difficult.

        From your previouse post:

        Revenue Earnings Profit Margin
        2002
        Q1 $135.9 $24.0 17.7%
        Q2 $140.4 $25.8 18.3%
        Q3 $152.9 $25.1 16.4%
        Q4 $155.4 $23.0 14.8%
        2003
        Q1 $129.4 $13.7 10.6%
        Q2 $100.6 $ 4.7 4.7%

 
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