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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Oct 17, 2003 4:53 PM Flag

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    Errrmm, confused and bitter? Sure, all the way to the bank, syd. I'm up 15% on this puppy over an average of about six months. 32% annual rate. Not bad with the Bond around 5%. And in my always-humble opinion, NLS is still selling at a modest discount.

    And as you recall I bet big on NLS, even risking terrifying ridicule from prize-winning financial minds like yours, flea's and hackne's.

    To review: the past three years' earnings + depreciation minus capex averaged about $1.80 per share. (Screw the forecasts, screw the quarter-by-quarter panic/celebration cycle.) Even if next-three-years' (and future) earnings are totally even (no growth), and if we boost the risk-free discount rate to 6.5%, that's an intrinsic value of $30 per share. If risk exceeds growth then we have to cut that $30, but even halving that comes to $15; no debt so toss in their $2 cash and you get $17 per share. And on a pretty gloomy analysis overall. What kind of Lead Poisoning would lead folks to sell at $11? I dunno. I was too busy sucking up cheap shares.

    Learn or pay, syd. And I mean this quite literally. If some of the shares I sucked up at $11, $11.20, $12 were yours, then thanks for handing me $3+ per share. Your money has found a good home at least.

21.28+0.02(+0.09%)4:04 PMEDT