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Nautilus Inc. Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo May 12, 2005 5:39 AM Flag

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    • A little touchy aren't we? Perhaps its just nervousness over tomorrow. Still short at 14.40? Have a nice day......

    • drop dead!!!!!!!!!

    • BTW if you experience trouble "suspecting" messages of being off-topic, two tip-offs can be titles that contain either the words "Off Topic" or screen names that don't belong to you. Those messages are likely to have low value for most readers & you're encouraged to skip them.

    • Well, I asked him for some ideas, stranger. Blame me.

    • i thought this was for NLS, not whatever stock you feel like pumping to unsuspecting NLS message board readers

    • Hi all,

      First time post for me on this board. In NLS since Nov. 2003. Anyway, it seems to me that this company needs to figure out a way to either
      A. Purchase or other acquisition and reduce current assets and increase debt (increasing the return on equity in the long run) or
      B. A large dividend to reduce cash and increase the debt load in order to properly finance this organization.

      Either way this company is WAY too conservative with the financial operations. They could use some cash maanagement ideas on how to sqeeze for better operations.

      They are sitting too comfortable with their nice bank account and aren't really taking the appropriate risks.

      Btw...this also in my opinion makes them a possible takeover candidate for a larger organization that would then use some debt to finance the organization.

      Tell me if I'm being to simplistic here or something...thanks for any comments.


    • Astral,

      Thanks for the candid assessments. With regard to YOCM, they have been investing operating cash flows into growing the asset base and they have recently cultivated new end-user channels for their products. I believe that they will achieve significantly higher revenue and earnings growth over the next 1-3 years as they pursue new business opportunities with the expanded capital base. Their Capex should come down substantially as they have their expanded PP&E in place, in fact depreciation will likely eclipse the level of maintenance Capex they need to sustain growth over the next few years, leading to healthier FCF growth. In my view it adds up to a higher rate of FCF growth than the last 5 years' average, likely in the range of 12%-15% which you can't achieve with an investment-grade corporate bond.

      As for XYBR, I know it's not your bag. The company's failure to execute on great technology is a source of frustration, and the financials suggest they need to achieve 50%-80% revenue growth, profitably, over the next 3-5 years to grow into their multiples. Scary I know...but you may want to keep an eye on it just for kicks...earnings call I believe is on Feb. 15. Certainly not a value play, but if you need some speculative stocks to diversify a value-heavy portfolio, XYBR has potential.

    • amsterbri -- thanks for the ideas. For me, none of them stack up quite as well as NLS, using Friday's prices.

      I'll shoot back my own hurried first impressions. I haven't done nearly enough research on any of these to make a decision, so please don't take the opinionated tone too seriously at this stage!

      1. Cohesant. Nice. Company looks strong, clean balance sheet, static revenues but growing earnings and EPS ($0.55 in owner EPS and 18% ROE ex cash. FWIW I don't understand the mechanism for continued earnings growth.) But the share price seems about right already. ( Might come to be worth $12 if it keeps growing; or $3.50 if it hits a glitch. The $7 share price leaves room for movement either way on fundamentals.)

      2. PEAK. Looks a bit 'startuppy' for my taste. I also think it's selling above its value range. Average earnings over the past three years have averaged close to zero (about 8 cents a share). In my narrow view, the liquidation value (~$3 net current assets) looks like the high end of the estimate range; the npv justified by the earnings record (~$1) the low end. The present share price of $7.60 is outside my range of value estimates.

      3. YoCream. Revenues are growing and earnings are ok though as you noted low w/r/t price. My biggest concern is the usual one for growing food service companies: These guys are making plenty of PP&E but no money. Free cash flow (= reported earnings + depr & amort - capex) averaged around zero over '00 thru '03. To me, at 7% growth it's not worth pushing cash flows back into the business. Pay a dividend instead. Because at 7% ROE, why hold stock at all? I can get decently-rated corporate bonds that pay 6% on principal. And, to address elsenorblanco's point, I can get those bonds for around 100 cents on the dollar. The extra 1% yield here doesn't come close to covering my overpayment (price/equity of about 170 cents on the dollar), let alone normal business risk. So I don't see growth as a good decision here. I think management is throwing money away.

      4. Calavo. Looks fine but overpriced as you noted. My buy point would be lower than yours. As many have noted I tend to sell too low, so no point giving my opinion on sell point!

      5. Xybernaut. Not my bag, baby. No opinion on the technology, my problem is with the financials. I don't see any evidence that they know or care how to turn a profit.

      Again, these are just first impressions and certainly too opinionated in tone considering how little I know about them. I'm also psychotically risk-averse and just about the worst possible person to talk to about "fun" stocks like #5!

    • Astral,

      Have enjoyed your comments on the board during the 2 months I've owned NLS.

      Here are my top microcap picks for 2004. They are very low volume so accumulation is a game of patience and a lot of tweaking bid prices on your limit orders.

      COHT - Cohesant Technologies, industrial adhesives company. Consistent earnings growth demonstrated over a long period of time. Reasonable valuations on sales, earnings, and cash flow. Clean balance sheet. Recently paid first ever dividend.

      PEAK - PEAK Semiconductor makes specialized shipping trays and peripheral accessories for shipping semiconductors. A "small" way to play the cyclical rebound in semiconductors, trading a hair above book value after yesterday's strong earnings release $0.07 EPS. No debt, lots of cash, has been buying back shares. Experiencing surging demand for its shipping trays. Good management team.

      YOCM - YoCream, manufacturer of frozen yogurt and products. Mainly distributes through commercial channels. In the last year, YOCM has expanded distribution in Costco in-store cafes(though this could hamper gross margins somewhat), signed a contract to service cafeterias of a national hospital chain, and gotten their products into Tully's Coffee (big west-coast chain) all in the past year. I take their significant recent expansion of manufacturing capacity as a sign these new contracts will deliver real revenues in 2004 and beyond. At 1.4x book value, 0.6x sales, and 21x trailing P/E it's not a steal but IMHO they will increase earnings approximately 35% in 2004, forward P/E 15.4x at current price.

      CVGW - Calavo Growers is a good growth agricultural company, with consistent earnings growth and an increasing dividend. However, it may be approaching fair value. Buy on dips below $10/share. I don't feel as strongly about CVGW as I do about the stocks I previously mentioned, but I am continuing to hold it after buying at $7.28 mid-2003.

      On the more speculative side, I would recomment putting a small amount of mobile-computing firm Xybernaut (XYBR) into your portfolio before their mid-February earnings release. The stock is completely liquid but highly volatile, so it shouldn't be more than a small portion of your assets. If you want to see a vicious debate, check out the XYBR board on Yahoo.

      Hope you're around to read this post.

      Talk to you later - amsterbri

    • My fault for not making it clear, snuggle-plums. I'm out of the *stock*, darling.

      And who knows why? Why buy a crappy $11 stock? Why sell a wonderful $17 stock? Maybe the spirit moved me. Maybe it was something encoded in all those strange, pointless symbols (+-=0123456...) that I've been wasting your time with.

      Lol. Just kidding. Everybody knows that math and finance have nothing to do with making money.

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