Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Nautilus Inc. Message Board

you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the posts
  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Feb 14, 2006 9:58 AM Flag

    Recent Strength

    The move from 29 down into the mid teens was an easy call (not the timing, which was sooner than I expected, but the price move). In my opinion, and please quote me on this later, another move to $10 or so is pretty much a no brainer within a year or two. (The thinking is that EPS has fallen from 1.00 to 0.70 in three years. Use a 12x multiple on the 70 cents and you get $8.40. Use a 10x multiple and ... well.)

    But I was surprised by the move *up* to 29, and I have nothing to say about these $2 blips in either direction.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Astral, you wrote: "The move from 29 down into the mid teens was an easy call (not the timing, which was sooner than I expected, but the price move). In my opinion, and please quote me on this later, another move to $10 or so is pretty much a no brainer within a year or two. (The thinking is that EPS has fallen from 1.00 to 0.70 in three years. Use a 12x multiple on the 70 cents and you get $8.40. Use a 10x multiple and ... well.)

      But I was surprised by the move *up* to 29, and I have nothing to say about these $2 blips in either direction."
      The move from the low of $13.50 to $16.73(today) hardly qualifies as a "blip" but rather a 25% rise. For example if someone invested $100000 at the market top of $29 he would be down $42300 today but if the same person invested $100000 at the bottom he would be up $23900. The gain is not that much smaller then the drop from $29. I'll make it easier for you: if you invested equal amounts at the top and bottom of a stock that went from $29 to $1 to $2, you would be ahead not behind, even though the rise was only a $1 blip while the fall was $27!

 
NLS
20.85+0.38(+1.86%)3:50 PMEDT