I trust the ticker more so than anything that spews out of an analyst or company's executive mouth. Went a little long today at $6.53. Waiting for a further drop to the 6.25 area to completely fill my planned position.
If you followed the ticker at this time last year you would have sold your shares and stayed away. If you followed the insider purchases, you made over 50% by Jan 1, 100% by Feb, 200% by April, and 300% by July.
If you followed the ticker when it finally gave you the signal to buy late last year, your gains would have been reduced by about 50% compared to having followed the insider purchases at this time last year.
I trust when the executive pulls money out of his pocket and buys shares. They don't throw $100,000 into the stock if they don't expect it to go up.
Regardless, most people around this company/stock know that it is very seasonal and business and the shares are generally soft during this quarter. This works out well for me as it provides something to move into once my spring/summer seasonals have run their course.
For folks like yourself who follow the ticker more closely along with technicals, RSI is bottoming so next move should be higher.
If you do buy, don't buy all at once as it can continue lower. Also, considering the high it's reached previously, and that there are a fair number of investors on the losing side of their trades at this time, if the stock just meanders around for a couple months, there will very likely be a fair amount of year end tax selling and it will be a much more opportune time to buy.
So, if you buy now, maybe only purchase 1/2 or 1/4 of what you ultimately want. Then if the shares go lower first, buy more.